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This is a follow-up article to " Estimating Forward 10-Year Stock Market Returns using the Shiller CAPE Ratio and its 35-Year Moving Average ," which is referred to as the “referenced article” further down. Over the last 10 years, since March 2009, the S&P 500 with dividend...
By OpenMarkets After the record-setting first half of the year, the second half started with a surge for equity indexes. Jack Bouroudjian breaks down why we should watch fund flows and why the traditionally slow summer months could be more active this year. Editor's Note: The summ...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up in June, rising to an annualized 4.8%. Tuesday's revision reflects a modest gain over last month's 4.5% projection. GMI is an unmanaged market value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash)....
With the long-running economic expansion showing its age, investors cheered what could turn out to be a well-timed assist from the Federal Reserve. That was the primary market driver last month as stocks posted their best June in more than 80 years — largely on the prospect of monetary ...
Nirvana swept over global markets in June as all the major asset classes posted gains. Even more remarkable, last month’s across-the-board increases mark the second time this year that everything rose in a calendar month (January also generated a rally in everything). Beta, in oth...
My own opinion is that the S&P 500 and the US equity market remain in a "secular" bull market that begin in either March 2009, or April 2013, when the S&P 500 traded over - and stayed above - the March 2000 and October 2007 highs for the S&P 500 of 1,550-1,575. While like most pe...
So, I did say my "worst-case scenario" did not seem like the most likely scenario to play out from the G-20 summit. Now we know my "best-case scenario" and most likely scenario is the one Trump and Xi have chosen, but what does that mean for the month of July? Here was the best-case scenario...
By Robert Hughes The final June results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment fell slightly from the final May result. Consumer sentiment decreased to 98.2 in June, down from 100.0 in May, a 1.8 percent decline (see chart). From a year ago, th...
In a recent speech, Hyun Song Shin, Head of Research at the BIS, discussed - What is behind the recent slowdown? The speech focused on the weakening of global value chains (GVCs) in manufactured goods. The manufacturing sector is critical, since it accounts for 70% of global merchandise trad...