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While listening to Fed Chairman Powell's Humphrey Hawkins testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, I noticed his response to a question asking if we had gone past the point of no return regarding our national debt of $22,489,174,200,900. He was quick to point out this ye...
By Bluford Putnam On June 30, 2019, the current economic expansion tied the old record from the Clinton decade of 40 quarters, and as each month passes without a recession, it will be setting new records for duration (although not strength, but that is another story, for another report). ...
After a brief summer vacation and now catching up on some market research, recent fund flow data caught my eye. In this week's ICI fund and ETF flow/issuance report , equity outflows totaled a sizable $28.8 billion. Of this amount, $25.2 billion represents outflows from U.S. domestic funds an...
By Robert Hughes AIER's Leading Indicators index remains neutral in June; policy remains biggest risk AIER's Leading Indicators index was unchanged in June, holding at the neutral reading of 50. The Lagging Indicators index was also unchanged in the latest month, repeating the May result...
US Fed Chair Jerome Powell stoked hopes for imminent rate cuts on Wednesday, acknowledging that global growth remains far below the Fed's forecasts in 2019. While large-cap shares levitated on prospects of a further reduction in borrowing rates, other economically sensitive markets like smal...
The jobs report one month ago was poor, so as expected, the JOLTS report for May, released this morning, followed suit. To review, because this series is only 20 years old, we only have one full business cycle to compare. During the 2000s expansion: Hires peaked first, from December 2004...
The S&P 500 and Dow have continued to make pushes up to new all-time highs in the past week, but sentiment remains subdued. AAII's weekly sentiment survey showed 33.61% of respondents have bullish sentiment, up 0.5% from last week. As we have been mentioning , this is in the lower range...
By Robert Hughes The small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business fell to 103.3 in June, down 1.7 points from 105.0 in May and 5.5 points below the all-time high of 108.8 in August 2018. Since first crossing the 100 level, the index has averaged 105.2 ...
The New York Fed has the odds of a recession within the next year at 33%. Some of the other models are humorous. New York Fed Treasury Spread Model The New York Fed Recession Model is based on yield curve inversions between the 10-year Treasury Note and the 3-Month Treasury Bill. I add...
Small business optimism took a dip in June, ending a streak of four straight monthly increases. According to the NFIB , the headline small business optimism index fell from 105.0 down to 103.3. Despite the decline, the headline reading was better than expected. The key behind the pullback t...