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Yes, it's boring but... We'd all rather like to be in a sustainable boom, and GDP rising at 2.1% isn't that. But then again, nor is it an unsustainable boom which the Fed has to bring to a shuddering halt through significant interest rate rises. Our investment point here is that we're not ...
Why is the fear of a virus weighing the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) down? The answer to that question lies in what epidemiologists are calling Novel Coronavirus 2019 (or 2019-nCoV) is and where it is having its greatest impact. As for what it is, 2019-nCoV is a rapidly spreading viral infect...
It is with some incredulity that we watch the US futures race ahead another 1.5% on Tuesday morning after a similar performance Monday, when the coronavirus is visibly causing large swaths of the second-largest economy of the world to come to a grinding halt. Markets, which by all accounts w...
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Source: "This Week in Earnings", IBES by Refinitiv To cut right to the chase, the overall "estimated" S&P 500 earnings growth for 2020 fell about 1/2 of 1% in January 2020, which, if we annualize, puts the expected 10% S&P 500 EPS growth rate in 2020 of 10% closer to 4-5% for the c...
Value Investor Update The Dallas Fed reported the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE which is used in the calculation of the Value Investor Index for the S&P 500. 12mo inflation dipped slightly to 1.96%, which keeps it close to a trend line of 2.00% the past 10yrs. The Value Investor Index ((VII)) ...
Market Correction Goes Viral Over the last few weeks, the message from the newsletter has been repetitive: "The markets are overbought, overextended, overly complacent. A correction is coming so reduce and rebalance portfolio risks." Despite those issues, the markets continued to pus...
A key part of informed decision-making on asset allocation is estimating future risk premia and using those projections to influence weights in the portfolio. The question, of course, is how to estimate premia? There are no easy answers for the simple reason that forecasting the future is co...
The year has started full of twists and turns. We started the year on the ride of the reflation narrative from the end of 2019, but, suddenly, we hit the wall of the coronavirus. What will be the impact of the coronavirus? Here I should pause and make a quick note. I am by no means an ex...
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NEW YORK , Aug. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Direxion continually reviews its product range to ensure it's meeting the needs of our clients. Based upon a recent review, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close 15 ETFs (each, a "Fund" and c...