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Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...
Summary There are some important financial implications to below-trend economic growth. If inflation remains high, interest rates will adjust, triggering a debt crisis as servicing requirements increase and defaults rise. Most of the aggregate growth in the economy was finance...
Summary After several years of steady growth and low inflation, policymakers now face a delicate tradeoff between bringing down inflation or sustaining economic growth amid heightened macro and market volatility. We expect the Fed to remain committed to aggressive rate hikes. ...
Summary Over the last month, there has been a continuation of the significant market volatility that has dominated much of 2022. Inflation fears have driven markets and, as happened in the first half of the year, both equities and bonds have sold off. The fundamental issue of ...
Summary At the Jackson Hole Summit, Jerome Powell made it clear the Federal Reserve remains focused on combatting inflation despite recession signals rising in tandem. While the Federal Reserve is focused on fighting inflation and willing to cause “some pain” to achi...
Summary The Fed has made abundantly clear that it will tighten monetary policy until inflation is virtually vanquished. And yet, those who have no choice but to be nearly fully invested at all times have completely ignored this fact and were left trying to convince the investing p...
Summary The recent jitters in markets have been due to economic data being too strong. Fixed income markets are likely to settle down when central banks signal that financial conditions are sufficiently tight. The current uncertainty may turn out to be worse than the slowdown ...
Summary In November of ’21, stock price momentum started to slow. I was precisely wrong or premature in labeling the first half of ’22 a recession. Falling stock prices had a direct and indirect impact, probably hurting the average American by about 10%. ...
The yield curve is inverted from the 6-month T-bill to the 10-year Treasury note, which would suggest that the bond market’s message is “recession ahead, batten down the hatches”. Relatively tight risk spreads suggest that nobody is thinking too seriously about th...
Assessing the main issues behind recent market performance. What to expect at the Jackson Hole symposium. Economic growth slows in China. On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Client Investment Strategies, Mark Eibel, and Sophie Antal-Gilbert, Head ...
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Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...
Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...
Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...