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Summary The September CPI, reflecting August 2022 inflation data, came in at 8.3%, which was higher than the consensus forecast but lower than the two previous readings. A 75-bp rate hike from the Fed is almost certain for September, and rates are likely to reach the 4% range by E...
Summary Over the last month, there has been a continuation of the significant market volatility that has dominated much of 2022. Inflation fears have driven markets and, as happened in the first half of the year, both equities and bonds have sold off. The fundamental issue of ...
Summary There is abundant evidence that inflation pressures are cooling. I can't emphasize enough that this inflation flare-up was not caused by a Fed policy error: it was caused by the federal government's attempt to soften the blow of Covid lockdowns. Inflation would remain ...
Summary Inflation in my experience comes from mistakes in government policy which expands currency without a subsequent expansion in economic growth as measured by Real Private GDP. With the fixed income and gold options not effective in today’s climate, one must focus on e...
Summary Inflation is thought to be a strong negative for stock prices. This seems to be borne by market action. However, over time, inflation actually contributes to higher stock prices. It seems widely accepted that higher inflation is a problem for the market and t...
Summary AIER’s Leading Indicators Index held at a cycle low of 29 in August, matching the lowest level since August 2020. The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in August, the first increase following three consecutive monthly declines. The final A...
Summary After a brutal six months, during which the Russell 1000 Growth Index fell more than 32%, growth stocks finally found a floor in June before rebounding. September is not over and is rarely kind to investors. A slower economy is, at least on a relative basis, supportive...
Summary Tuesday was an extremely rare 56:1 down day, we wiped out all of the gains we made over the prior four days, and we are setting up for a 25% rally over the next 12 months. For every stock that was up, there were 56 that were down. The market had put together an impress...
Summary After the July CPI report set up some hope that both headline and core inflation were moderating, the August CPI report significantly outpaced consensus expectations. The August CPI report suggests U.S. inflation will take longer to decline. New projections will be rel...
Summary Stocks plunged today because core inflation is worse than expected, and that’s mostly services. Why is service inflation getting worse? Because it responds with a lag to increases in nominal GDP. Much of services inflation is wages and implicit rents. Wages are ...
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The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Simplify Exchange Traded Funds (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of shareholders to liquidate the Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Downside Convexity ETF (QQD) and Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Convexity ETF (QQC) a...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 6 Simplify ETFs. * For the funds listed in the table below, the ex-date for the 2022 capital gains distribut...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 3 Simplify ETFs.* For the funds listed in Table 1, the ex-date for the 2021 capital gains distribution...