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Summary The Fed will hike until something breaks. And politicians in DC will not let Powell break inflation. Things are starting to break - the British pound, the Japanese yen, the German energy market. The market has been pinning its hopes on the idea that the Fed would pivot...
Summary As September winds down, three sets of economic reports will draw the most attention. Many will see the US PCE deflator as the key given the monetary cycle, but its thunder has been stolen. The Mexican peso is one of four emerging market currencies that have appreciate...
Summary Chinese big four bank CDS each surged about 10 bps, the largest single-session gains since the July 15th peak risk off. The dollar index gained 0.6% Tuesday, trading back above 110. EM currencies were under pressure, with the Polish zloty, Chilean peso, Hungarian forint an...
Summary The Fed funds target rate is now in the range of 3.0 to 3.25 percent. Indications provided by the members of the FOMC at this week’s meeting suggests that the Fed funds rate will eventually settle somewhere just north or just south of five percent. As Fed chair ...
Summary The Fed is making a potentially catastrophic mistake in raising rates. A recession is becoming more likely, even as higher rates create more headwinds for equities. Small-cap stock selling pressure is especially pronounced. From the time the U.S. equity marke...
Summary The US economy is weakening, growth expectations are muted and stagflation is back in the picture. This bear market has wiped out all of the 2021 gains. All of the major indices test the June lows and are at a critical pivot point now. "I have not failed....
Summary As evidence piles up that the stock market is caught in a bear market, the focus inevitably turns to analytics that will signal a high-confidence forecast that the selling has reached exhausted itself and a bottom has arrived. In other words, there’s (still) no silv...
Summary Despite their mythologized status as financial albatrosses, bear markets are relatively frequent and indeed normal occurrences investors should expect over the long run. Using the Russell 3000 to calculate performance, the average drawdown and duration is 30.9% and 9 month...
Summary There are some important financial implications to below-trend economic growth. If inflation remains high, interest rates will adjust, triggering a debt crisis as servicing requirements increase and defaults rise. Most of the aggregate growth in the economy was finance...
Summary The 21% fall from all-time highs in the S&P 500 has been orderly as compared to past major declines. Lack of strong relief rallies and volatility spikes could be a sign this is just the start of an extended move down. There are no technical signals the market is an...
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The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Simplify Exchange Traded Funds (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of shareholders to liquidate the Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Downside Convexity ETF (QQD) and Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Convexity ETF (QQC) a...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 6 Simplify ETFs. * For the funds listed in the table below, the ex-date for the 2022 capital gains distribut...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 3 Simplify ETFs.* For the funds listed in Table 1, the ex-date for the 2021 capital gains distribution...