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Summary The distortion of inflation can lower the rate of real growth because inflation impacts behavior in nonproductive ways. The number of job openings exceeds the number of job seekers, and the result is a wage inflation pressure that is triggering the Federal Reserve’s...
Summary The tug-of-war between strong earnings reports and rising interest rates continues. Fair market value for the S&P 500 has arguably fallen to 3,200 with the rapid increase in interest rates. Bear markets take no prisoners, as stocks are sold indiscriminately as we a...
Summary It was a good week for jobless claims as the seasonally adjusted number fell 12K to 214K versus last week’s downward revision to 226K. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims were also lower as might be expected for the current week of the year. As we highlig...
Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 12,000 for the week ending October 15th, coming in at 214,000. When measured as a percentage of nonfarm payrolls, claims came in at 0.136 percent for September, down from 0.160 in August but above the record l...
Summary A small equity market bounce over the last week didn’t cause any major changes in investor sentiment, at least based on the weekly AAII numbers released this morning. The latest data from AAII showed 22.6% of survey respondents reported as bullish versus 20.4% the w...
Summary The S&P 500 remains supported along its June lows, as buyers appeared to stanch further selling. However, the price action has not been resolved. We anticipate that the market has already priced in a mild-to-moderate recession. But, we explain why the Fed may not be fi...
Summary According to the most recent figures, US after-tax corporate profitability reached its highest share of GDP in nearly 70 years. According to a recent paper, falling borrowing costs and tax expenses have resulted in as much as one third of the increase in aggregate US corpo...
Summary As I've argued in recent posts, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the Fed has already tightened by enough to bring inflation down. The dollar is super-strong, real yields have risen sharply, the yield curve is inverted, commodity prices are plunging, and the housing ma...
Summary The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), designed to gauge market conditions, fell to 38 in October from 46 in September, now 50% lower than it was six months ago (below 50 is considered negative), and the largest year over ye...
Summary Persistent inflation spurred the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively in the third quarter, with 0.75% hikes in both July and September. Earnings estimates for equities had continued to climb during the early part of the year and only started to moderate...
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The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Simplify Exchange Traded Funds (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of shareholders to liquidate the Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Downside Convexity ETF (QQD) and Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Convexity ETF (QQC) a...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 6 Simplify ETFs. * For the funds listed in the table below, the ex-date for the 2022 capital gains distribut...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 3 Simplify ETFs.* For the funds listed in Table 1, the ex-date for the 2021 capital gains distribution...