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Summary Recession is likely, but the unique characteristics of the previous pandemic-fueled recession wrung out many excesses. Inflation will come down, but not to the low levels experienced over the past few decades. Capital markets have re-priced assets in ways that create a...
Summary This latest bear market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain uncha...
Summary Yesterday, Fed chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to combating inflation (lagging indicator) at the expense of economic growth, employment and asset prices (leading indicator). In an abrupt reversal, every market sector tumbled into the close, with 474 of S&...
Summary The Institute for Supply Management’s composite services index decreased to 54.4 percent in October, falling 2.3 points from 56.7 percent in the prior month. The index remains above the neutral 50 threshold and suggests the 29th consecutive month of expansion for th...
Summary Fed's Powell remains hawkish on rates, despite dovish overtures in statement. The Fed reiterates its intension that rates will remain high until inflation is cracked. Why rates are going to be higher for longer, even after inflation comes down. Th...
Summary Claims have fallen in eight of the last 12 weeks, but the changes over the last five weeks have been small. Continued elevated rates of price increases, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain risks to the economic outloo...
Summary Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained hawkish but left some hope for the equity bulls. Notably, the Fed could be inching closer to its terminal rate expectations by early 2023. Therefore, this week's selloff is appropriate to position the market appropriately for increased rece...
Summary The Federal Reserve has raised the Federal Funds Rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Chairman Powell says they have the "resolve" to stay the course until the job is done. Terminal rate targets have now moved higher while expectations for the duration of...
Summary Monetary inflation is the driver of the economic boom-bust cycle, with booms being set in motion by rapid monetary inflation and busts getting underway after the rate of new money creation drops below a critical level and/or it becomes impossible to complete projects due to re...
Summary Despite all the worries over the possibility of a recession in the quarters ahead, the stock market seems to have priced in a “soft landing” for the economy. The cyclicals-to-defensives ratio has yet to really react even to the slowdown in the economy we have...
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The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Simplify Exchange Traded Funds (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of shareholders to liquidate the Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Downside Convexity ETF (QQD) and Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Convexity ETF (QQC) a...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 6 Simplify ETFs. * For the funds listed in the table below, the ex-date for the 2022 capital gains distribut...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 3 Simplify ETFs.* For the funds listed in Table 1, the ex-date for the 2021 capital gains distribution...