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Summary I was getting increasingly bearish starting November 2021. This was because the NASDAQ Composite hit a new high in November, which was not followed by the other two indices. Currently, the index flashing caution is the S&P 500, which on down days flirts with its histor...
Summary Global climate adjustment is falling behind in meeting the targets of limiting temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Developing economies vulnerable to climate change are likely to undertake concerted calls for "loss and damag...
Summary The mistake of the 1970s was that, by overtightening, the Fed created a deep drop in economic activity that necessitated the subsequent rapid cuts. Hiking too fast, not allowing time to see the effect of past rate hikes, is exactly how the Fed ends up overtightening in jus...
Summary After rallying 9% off the October 12 bottom, the market pulled back last week but still sits 5.4% above the low point. Commodities are trouncing all other major asset classes on a YTD basis, largely due to the rise in oil, natural gas, and agricultural prices. The newe...
Summary The trend for the dollar and the 10-year Treasury yield is still up but, as I said last week, both appear to be hitting a short-term peak. US stocks were down last week but non-US stocks had a great week. The selloff in the dollar Friday goosed non-dollar returns by nearly...
Summary BlackRock’s top investment leaders came together at the Outlook Forum. The upshot: the new regime is not about to change, and we need a new playbook. Stocks slid and yields rose as the Federal Reserve delivered another mega rate rise and signaled it would need to ta...
Summary If the unemployment level in the economy increases, this removes potential demand from the economy; hence, a slowdown or recession may unfold. The unemployment rate is flattening and possibly beginning an uptrend, with both the rate and average now equaling 3.7%. The p...
Summary The early line from the prediction betting polls expect the Republicans to gain seats and control both houses of Congress. That could put a check mark on the side of the market bears and put a crimp on markets, as the gridlock in DC means no more stimulus until 2025. The t...
Summary Expectations coming into Thursday’s CPI and Core CPI print are leaning “heavy” so to speak, meaning the street is expecting another hot number. Inflation matters to bond yields and bond yields matter to stock P/E levels and valuations. It’s all ...
Summary The US October CPI is the most critical data point in the week ahead. The November CPI will be reported the day before the FOMC meets again on December 14. The other report, the US monthly federal deficit, gets little attention from the market. There are th...
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The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Simplify Exchange Traded Funds (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of shareholders to liquidate the Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Downside Convexity ETF (QQD) and Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Convexity ETF (QQC) a...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 6 Simplify ETFs. * For the funds listed in the table below, the ex-date for the 2022 capital gains distribut...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 3 Simplify ETFs.* For the funds listed in Table 1, the ex-date for the 2021 capital gains distribution...