Why And When I Stopped Following Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio

2026-03-09 07:48:00 ET

Why I pivoted away from Dalio’s AWP around 2020

For decades, we have managed our family portfolios following Ray Dalio’s AWP allocation (aka, All-Weather Portfolio) and have been generously rewarded by this disciplined template. In case you’re unfamiliar with this model, it is a risk-parity strategy designed to perform across all four different economic regimes (hence the name all-weather): rising growth (i.e., economic expansion), falling growth (i.e., recession), rising inflation (i.e., inflationary), and falling inflation (i.e., disinflationary). The template calls for a mix of 30% stocks, 40% long-term treasuries, 15% intermediate Treasuries, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% commodities. The approach did not only help us to outperform the S&P 500 for extended periods of time as shown in the next chart, but also managed to help us with far lower drawdowns....

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