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2023-03-21 15:02:00 ET Summary Six weeks ago, a recession forecasting model developed by a U.S. Federal Reserve analyst predicted the probability of recession in the U.S. would soon rise above 50%. Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25% ...
2023-03-21 04:20:00 ET Summary Major bank failures are occurring in the US and Europe. Bank failures are common in major recessions, and all fractional reserve banks are at risk. This banking crisis could be worse than the Great Recession. High inflation puts the Fed betwe...
2023-03-21 02:30:00 ET Summary Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Despite all the turmoil in the banking sector, US stocks managed to post a gain last week but it was entirely due to the rise in technology a...
2023-03-20 14:58:00 ET Summary As of Friday’s close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold. Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels....
2023-03-20 11:15:00 ET Summary Now that their interest rate policy is starting to cause things to break, the Fed can continue to raise interest rates and watch the systemic risk to the system increase or cut interest rates and watch inflation explode. I expect them to raise rates ...
2023-03-18 08:30:00 ET Summary The Fed began raising interest rates one year ago, on March 17, 2022, and the U.S. economy is not in recession. Milton Friedman famously found that the time lags are long and variable. The factors delaying recession will not prevent it, and it...
2023-03-18 08:21:00 ET Summary Could the consensus view of a 'no recession' scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily. What happened with SVB is a result of tighter monetary policy extracting liquidity from the banking system. While ...
2023-03-18 02:14:07 ET Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. Several important coincident indicators - tax withholding and temporary staf...
2023-03-18 01:20:49 ET Summary The recent weakness in the banking system demonstrates just how fragile it is. We have yet to see the full impact of higher interest rates in the economy, but earnings have already started to decline. The market's earnings expectations for the S&...
2023-03-16 23:29:00 ET Summary The recent disarray in the banking system appears to have caused fundamental changes to the near-term course of the economy. The expected recession is now more likely and will probably occur sooner. As the economy slows sooner, inflation may move...
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2024-06-24 04:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-02 13:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 04:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...