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2023-11-14 15:12:00 ET Summary U.S. real personal consumption has held up well in the face of higher interest rates because jobs kept growing. Inflation has receded in virtually every category, although shelter is coming down more slowly due to the confusing and lagged calculation...
2023-11-14 06:51:00 ET Summary In the context of fighting inflation, the “final mile” represents the successful and sustainable achievement of a central bank’s inflation target. Perhaps the biggest surprise in macroeconomics this year has been the resilience o...
2023-11-10 07:30:00 ET Summary Value went through the longest and deepest dry spell in history from 2007 to summer of 2020. Depends how you define value. As a value investor, obviously that puts our company through a ringer and it has us challenging and testing our own assumptions...
2023-11-07 22:55:00 ET Summary We had a few data misses and comments from Fed officials to suggest that the tightening cycle is now done. Some investors have even started to look forward to interest rate cuts, and this was reflected in a sharp fall in bond yields. The Dow enjo...
2023-11-07 21:35:00 ET Summary The third quarter GDP report surprised most economists with a blowout 4.9% gain. Is a downside reversal brewing for Q4? Early estimates for the final months of 2023 point to a substantially softer pace of economic activity. It’s premature ...
2023-11-03 16:04:00 ET Summary Despite substantially tighter monetary policy, the strength of jobs and retail sales stumped expectations of a recessionary downturn in 2022. Current real-time economic data suggests the economy is rapidly moving from economic slowdown toward recessi...
2023-11-02 21:00:00 ET Summary Due to rapid government spending, inventory building by the private sector and about $500B coming out of the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility, US ‘real’ GDP grew at an annualised rate of almost 5% in Q3-2023. It has been known for a f...
2023-10-31 14:50:00 ET Summary Since July, the probability of a recession starting sometime in the next 12 months has declined. However, the U.S. treasury yield curve is still inverted and the probability of recession remains elevated. The Recession Probability Track indicates...
2023-10-27 07:45:00 ET Summary Following the September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated its higher for longer mantra and upgraded its economic forecast to include a no recession scenario. If the average delay between the final rate increase and recession is 11 months, ...
2023-10-23 20:25:00 ET Summary After a lower open to start the week, stocks have staged a pretty big intraday recovery (so far). One catalyst for the rally was a tweet by Bill Ackman saying his firm had covered its Treasury short, citing too much geopolitical risk and an economy w...
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2024-06-24 04:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-02 13:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 04:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...