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2024-01-12 01:30:00 ET Summary While recession continues to be a base case of 55%, the odds of a soft landing are getting better. As you near a cycle peak, the economy transitions quickly from strong job formation to outright losses. The Fed has the latitude to cut rates and, ...
2024-01-08 14:15:00 ET Summary There has never been an incidence in history where US Conference Board LEI had a 6-month average growth rate sub -4.5%. The six-month smoothed LEI growth rate in November was -7.5% and has been negative for 20 consecutive months. When we combine ...
2024-01-08 09:52:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 has backed away from its all-time (trading) high of 4,818, while the Nasdaq is off to its weakest start since January 2008. Any data point that helps Treasury yields rise a little after the torrid two-month rally from late October thr...
2024-01-08 08:00:00 ET Summary The stock market rally in 2023 was primarily enjoyed by seven large-cap technology stocks, but I expect the rally will ultimately widen in 2024 for both stocks and bonds. The Federal Reserve is projected to shift from tightening to accommodation as i...
2024-01-08 04:43:00 ET Summary We are entering a period whereby supportive structural flows for stocks are much less prominent, leaving the market open to a window of vulnerability. Measures of market internals and market breadth are no longer wholly supportive of higher stock pri...
2024-01-03 11:15:00 ET Summary Assets bid up by irrational amounts eventually end up on clearance sale. Large-cap companies are typically more financially stable but still saw a tripling of the negative earnings share during past recessions. January clocks stock market gains f...
2024-01-01 11:26:00 ET Summary Here's my list of 10 potential surprises for investors in 2024. Note they are not expected, but should be respected as possibilities. I'm as optimistic as anyone when a new year starts, but I insist on looking both ways before I cross the street as a...
2023-12-28 11:30:00 ET Summary The 2024 slowdown will probably not be a recession, though that’s certainly a possibility. Yield curve inversion is one of the best leading indicators, measuring whether short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. Despite the general...
2023-12-28 04:30:00 ET Summary As all students of economics should have learned, prices are set at the margin by the intersection of supply and demand. The surge in the demand for currency has almost completely reversed from its early-covid levels. Corporations are not struggl...
2023-12-25 12:20:00 ET Summary Markets have embraced the soft landing. It is always worth asking in such a situation whether this is a case of markets buying the rumour and selling the fact. Even if the soft landing trade loses a few steps in the next few weeks, the shift in senti...
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2024-06-24 04:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-02 13:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 04:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...