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Summary Inflation was hot in January. This is putting the Fed on a path to raise rates well above 5% in 2023. The equity market appears to have wrong on disinflation. To no surprise, CPI proved to be hot in January on a month-over-month basis, rising by 0.5%, in line with expe...
Summary While the rest of America was gearing up for the Super Bowl Sunday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised Q4 inflation numbers higher on Friday. This is actually huge news. Preprogrammed algos bought billions in stock off of November and December CPI off of faulty assumptio...
Summary Has recent strong data changed the fundamental economic and market outlook, or just the timeline? A stronger January than December should not come as a surprise, given the diminished China- and energy-related headwinds the global economy now faces. We also know that monetary...
Summary One hypothesis we're currently evaluating behind the scenes is that the multiplier may have shifted to zero at the beginning of the year. Unlike changes in dividend expectations that are easy to identify, the factors that cause the dividend futures-based model's basic multiplier...
Summary Economic news has caused market participants to be looking the wrong way over these last 5 months. While news reports can act as a catalyst for market moves, the substance of the news is often unimportant in determining a directional bias. As long as highlighted support hold...
Summary The 5-year Treasury yield jumped 27 bps last week, from 3.66% the prior week to close, to 3.93% at this Friday’s close. This is after falling 30 bps in the first week of January ’23. The “estimated” S&P 500 earnings growth for 2023 (as a whole) ha...
Summary A week of rest and consolidation has set up volatility next week as key data will be released. "Higher for longer" rate expectations are gaining traction but would be discouraged by a disinflationary CPI report. Key technical levels to watch in the S&P 500 in the week ah...
Summary CPI is expected to see a big jump in January month-over-month. Recent revisions showed that inflation was running hotter than was previously thought. Inflation swaps, bonds, options suggest that CPI could come in hotter than expected. The upcoming February 14 Consu...
Summary Instead of bullish investors sticking with their mantra of 'Don’t Fight The Fed,' it is now a standoff between bullish investors and the Fed. While bullish investors cling to historical statistics about market returns, the problem is the Fed remains clear that it will not...
Summary From its all-time high of 4,973, the S&P 500 has now fallen 23% (as at January 1st), so the US large-cap index is still in a bear market. Over the last 100 years, the S&P 500’s CAPE has almost never gone outside the range of half to double its long-term average. ...
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2024-05-16 13:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-06 20:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-27 03:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...