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One of the most impactful sectors here, auto sales fell to a 13.33 million annualized rate in March, down 30% from their cycle peak last April. At the same time, importers of durable goods, stressed by supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, over-ordered goods in anticipation of...
Fed rhetoric is driving long-term rates higher, which will slow demand for homes and autos. Yet the economy is strengthening as we start the second quarter with consumer and corporate balance sheets in great shape. The stock market recovery looks poised to continue once we begin f...
The labor force recovery since the pandemic shock low is on an upward trajectory within a longer-term downward trend. Demographics seem to be the single most powerful force in longer-term labor force trends, and they remain in the downward trajectory, as we can see from these charts. ...
The Institute for Supply Management’s composite services index increased to 58.3 percent in March, rising 1.8 points from 56.5 percent in the prior month. Backlogs of orders in the services sector likely grew again in March as the index increased to 64.5 percent from 64.2 perce...
Production and demand growth was subdued by a combination of headwinds, including the Ukraine war and new COVID-19 related disruptions - notably in China. In Europe, the Ukraine war took a toll on production growth, most prominently leading to renewed falls in output in Poland and the...
With the Russia/Ukraine conflict raging, energy prices soaring, inflation spiking, the Fed hiking rates, and pressure on asset prices, it is reasonable to have a more bearish view. One of the biggest challenges investors always face is allocating capital to markets once a correction o...
Recession forecasts are topical lately, driven by the recent inversion of the Treasury yield curve for 2- and 10-year rates. US nonfarm payrolls rose 431,000 in March, extending a run of healthy gains that suggests the economy’s forward momentum remains strong. Economic mom...
Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in February 2022 is $74,799, an increase of $700 (or 0.94%) from the initial estimate of $74,099 in January 2022. February 2022's estimated median household income of $74,799 is just $21 higher than January 2022's inf...
The combination of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have some historical precedence, as wars often follow pandemics due to the economic disruptions which result from such cataclysms. It seems as if the MELA system is replacing the old economic system, perhaps permanently. The N...
The outlook for corporate profit growth and price-earnings ratios could not be more fragile. Many companies in the goods-producing sector are facing sharply higher input costs. Rising yields are often paired with declining price-earnings ratios because one is using a higher yield ...
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2024-07-28 07:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-07 14:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-27 21:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...