Ferrari Is Up Sharply After Q4 Earnings, Reminding The Market Who Sets The Price

2026-02-10 11:00:57 ET

Introduction

Ferrari N.V. ( RACE ) reported its Q4 2025 earnings , and, after months of decline, the stock is finally seeing a strong 10% move higher at the time of writing. Since October, Ferrari's shareholders have been tested in a way that has never happened before. After all, since its 2015 IPO, Ferrari has been steadily moving up as investors gained more and more confidence in its unique business model, where demand always exceeds (by a lot) the available supply so that Ferrari can leverage its exclusivity and report growing revenues and profits. It has been considered a true safe haven that has even commanded an earnings multiple close to 50. Then, Ferrari held its Capital Markets Day in October 2025 and presented its 2030 goals. There were two big changes that unsettled investors, who sold the stock, sending it down to $280 from $500 (-44% in four months!). First of all, investors learned that Ferrari was pushing back on its electric targets, committing to only one model ( the Ferrari Luce , which will be launched in May ) and rebalancing its model line-up from 40% electric sales to only 20%. I personally didn't have any trouble with this change, and I actually considered it to be margin accretive. Secondly, investors didn't like that Ferrari said that it expects its revenues to grow by at least 5% annually. This number caused concern because Ferrari was being priced as a stock that is able to grow around 10% per year. However, as I have often discussed, Ferrari is usually very conservative when it releases its targets, and most of the time its results exceed the goals that were previously set. This is why I argued that I think a 6.5% annual sales growth is something I expect the company to achieve with little difficulty, which is why I believe that Ferrari will reach its 2030 goals between 2028 and 2029 . During these months, I bought more Ferrari and received a lot of questions about this choice, and so I had the chance to share the math I was doing that made me quite confident that, a few years from now, I have a high chance of being in the green with this holding....

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