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Summary The consensus expectation on Tuesday for August CPI was for a 0.1% decline, but the positive +0.1% monthly gain in the CPI shocked Wall Street. This inflation news spooked Treasury bond yields, pushing 10-year yields up from 3.36% on Monday to 3.42% on Tuesday. Now tha...
Summary With inflation at the highest level in decades and volatility continuing to surge, equity investors are questioning their next moves. At the beginning of the year, financial conditions were very loose by any means historically, and we've very rapidly moved from loose finan...
Summary Climate change, if left unchecked, will likely have such widespread implications that it could threaten the stability of the global financial system. Tracking the reality of the environmental implications will be critical to companies mitigating risk and capitalizing on op...
Summary From a year ago, retail sales are up 9.2 percent and remain well above the pre-pandemic trend. Real core retail sales posted a 0.3 percent decline in August after declining less than 0.1 percent in July. Overall, nominal total and core retail sales remain well above tr...
Summary AIER’s Leading Indicators Index held at a cycle low of 29 in August, matching the lowest level since August 2020. The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in August, the first increase following three consecutive monthly declines. The final A...
Summary Jackson Hole reset expectations to focus more on inflation. The U.S. dollar should stabilize over the medium-term amid hawkishness from other central banks and slowing economic data. At stake is Europe’s ability to refill their storage tanks ahead of winter. ...
Summary We believe that cash flow and debt sustainability are likely to become increasingly important as real economic growth slows and credit access tightens. Cash flow provides a link between a company’s income statement and their balance sheet. Focusing on the Russel...
Summary The second quarter earnings season saw a notable divergence in spending habits by consumer income cohort. Inflationary pressures are disproportionately affecting low-income consumers while higher earners remain resilient, judging from 2Q earnings results and forward guidan...
Summary Today's market X-ray shows the returns for each index, asset class, sector, and so on, since the recent low point on June 16th. Of the global indices, US small caps are in the lead, followed by the NASDAQ. High beta stocks are the most preferred factors since June 16. ...
The durables and apparel subsector is undervalued by about 20% relative to 11-year averages. Auto and components are the less attractive subsector regarding valuation and quality metrics. XLY fast facts. 10 stocks cheaper than their peers in August. This monthly arti...