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2023-04-12 00:08:00 ET Summary A negative US 10-year minus 3-month yield spread has signalled every incoming recession of the last 60 years. In the real world, global PC shipments were -29% year over year in the first quarter, and the average work week in March’s payroll re...
2023-04-07 10:05:00 ET Summary The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, a measure of household sentiment about their current and forward-looking financial situation, has held up reasonably well although understandably lower than the stimulus-aided optimism evident in early 2021...
2023-04-07 08:00:00 ET Summary From an investing perspective, consumer discretionary stocks have performed relatively strongly this year even through market volatility. XLY is up 14.5% YTD compared to XLP, which is up 0.5% YTD. Consumers with higher incomes are less sensitive ...
2023-04-03 09:49:43 ET Summary The AMI market risk indicator is risk-on since December 2. The NASDAQ 100 had a huge rally in January. After a five-week retreat in February, the rally resumed in the second week of March. Simulations of the AMI strategy for two NASDAQ 100 ETFs, ...
2023-04-01 03:40:00 ET Summary Why the U.S. consumer continues to spend. As inventories begin to shrink, will retailers regain their pricing power and margins? Why consumer resilience is helping to push the chance of an economic slowdown further away. Even wi...
2023-03-24 23:53:00 ET Summary Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday’s close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Consumer Discretionary posted the smallest gain of 10%; Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, re...
2023-03-20 14:57:22 ET Invesco 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF ( NYSEARCA: RCD ) - $0.4244 . 30-Day SEC Yield of 1.13% as of Mar 17. Payable Mar 24; for shareholders of record Mar 21; ex-div Mar 20. For further details see: Invesco 500 Equal Weigh...
2023-03-17 04:30:00 ET Summary The Q4 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -21.5%. For Q4 2022, eight out of the 11 consumer-related industries have turned negative. Retailers are reporting earnings and are warning us not to expect too much from them for the cur...
2023-03-16 21:41:00 ET Summary Real Personal Income and Retail Sales have been holding at recent highs despite voluminous calls for recession and claims that consumers have pulled back spending. We should be surprised that post-lockdown spending has held up as well as it has and s...
2023-03-15 22:12:00 ET Summary Retail sales in February dipped 0.4% from the huge spike in January, to $698 billion. So is this tiny dip in February off the huge spike in January a sign that consumers are tapped out? Consumers are still spending like drunken sailors, especiall...