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Inflation expectations have kept the Federal Reserve center stage as they commenced their interest rate rising cycle in March. The war in Ukraine and Omicron’s spread in China impacted inflation and supply chains differently, but both delay supply chain normalization. Regar...
Stock markets fell in the first quarter as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilized the growth outlook, amplified concerns about rising interest rates and unleashed geopolitical risks. While the conflict has created many uncertainties, we believe the impact of persistent infla...
Follow the Money is a series of brief, information-rich posts that I will publish periodically but not on a fixed schedule. After rallying for 9 of the last 11 days, the S&P 500 went from down -13% to down just -3.4%. Growth has been hit hard by the slide in tech stocks this y...
Retail sales continued to grow for the second month even after sizeable revisions in January. February sales were more diversified, which is a testament to a solid rebound in activity as Omicron waned. Maria Solovieva: We expect price pressures to ease in the second half of the ye...
Retail sales have gone up to start the year as Americans keep spending. Americans are spending a lot more money but they're not getting much more for it. despite surging prices, retail sales came in slightly below expectations in February. For further details see: Americ...
Based on new hopes for a peaceful Ukrainian/Russian resolution to their nearly month-long war, the world is cautiously optimistic. Although China has been trying to help Russia avoid economic sanctions, China is struggling with its own debt problems from Evergrande, slowing economic g...
Invesco 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) - $0.2637. 30-Day SEC Yield of 0.73% as of March 18. Payable March 31; for shareholders of record March 22; ex-div March 21. For further details see: Invesco 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF declares quarterly distribu...
The most attractive consumer cyclical subsector in value and quality is durables and apparel. Services and auto/components are overvalued by more than 20% relative to 11-year averages. VCR: An alternative to XLY. 10 stocks cheaper than their peers in March. For further d...
New lockdowns in the Chinese manufacturing hub of Shenzhen presage more supply disruptions for companies and higher prices for consumers. As items from electronics to cars become ever more expensive or unavailable, households will revert to pre-pandemic habits and focus their non-esse...
February and January are the worst months of the year for retailers, after the huge holiday season binge. Retail sales are sales of goods, both durable goods and nondurable goods. The number of used vehicles sold to retail customers in February dropped by 7% year-over-year. ...