Weekly Market Pulse: The Slowdown Continues

2025-09-08 08:17:00 ET

I’ve said many times that no one should pay much attention to the monthly payroll figures because they are barely more than wild guesses, something the current administration’s economic team only recently discovered. Last week’s report for August, by itself, doesn’t mean much and will be revised, so I wouldn’t put much emphasis on it. What investors should pay attention to with payrolls, as with most economic data, is the trend. There was a lot of commentary last Friday about how terrible the monthly figures were – which if unrevised were actually fairly unremarkable – and some commentary about the trend, which is pretty obviously down over the last year. And the last two years and the last three years, so not that unusual on its face. But at some point, the downtrend goes so far that the level matters too, and the last few readings come perilously close to being something other than benign noise....

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