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Commodity markets remain vulnerable to Russia-Ukraine developments. Tightness in several commodities means that markets are likely to be more sensitive to any supply shocks. Tightness in energy and some agricultural commodities is set to persist for the foreseeable future. Disrupt...
The loss of wheat and sunflower exports from Russia and Ukraine has had clear knock-on effects on many Asian staples. In every country in Asia right now, food price inflation is pushing overall inflation higher, and this could have further to go. Certainly, higher rates can help r...
Sugar beets are continuing to plant behind average time-frames as Minnesota and North Dakota struggle with weather delays. Wheat condition continues to be an issue year over year for the winter crop, but the headings are coming along nicely. Commodities markets are currently down ...
The war in Ukraine will likely pour more gasoline on the already raging inflationary fire, threatening to send the global economy into stagflation. Stagflation is a slowdown of economic activity caused by inflation. Over the last 20-plus years, every time the economy stumbled, Uncle F...
On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages. The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its bal...
The market was expecting planted soy to be at 48-50% planted and corn to come in around 68-70%. Surprisingly, the commodities markets are somewhat tame, given that the envelope to plant and have a successful crop harvest prior to the first freeze is coming to a close shortly. This...
The war in Ukraine clearly triggered the spike in oil prices and in agricultural prices as well. Inflation, interest rates and Fed policy are linked. Similarly, supply chain disruptions, the slowdown in China, and big-tech reversals are all Covid-related. The bottom line right now...
U.S. organic sales reached nearly $62 billion in 2020 as the industry achieved its 12th consecutive year of growth. Following growing consumer demand, the footprint of U.S. organic agriculture has expanded. While consumer demand has been the driver for an increase in organic agric...
In the US, we may have seen the peak of overall inflation, with the annualized CPI rate increasing at 8.3% in April, down from 8.5% in March. One particular item has gotten recently in the US, baby formula, a peculiarly egregious shortage. It is the food situation that is the most...
We have been living under an illusion that the relationship between nominal GDP and the quantity of circulating currency is dead. Claims linking inflation to the size of the balance sheet may stem, in part, from focus by Fed officials on the size of the balance sheet in recent months....
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Supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war and renewed COVID-19 lockdowns have led to rising agricultural commodities prices. But because domestic producers are expected to capitalize on growing demand and rising prices, investing in ETFs that offer substantial exposure to agricultural ...