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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with its tragic human toll, likely marks a turning point for the geopolitical and global economic order. Will financial sanctions backfire and accelerate the displacement of the US dollar as primary global reserve currency? We are likely to see...
This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%. The Fed was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis point...
The economic implications of Russia’s war are potentially large and global. Domestic Chinese spending will be hit, owing to higher petrol and food prices that dampen consumption. Russia and Ukraine account for 14% of global wheat production and 30% of global wheat exports. ...
The last time commodities outperformed global equities in a consecutive two-year period where returns were positive for both asset classes were back in 2004-2005. The brent curve has broadly remained in backwardation since the beginning of 2021 as OPEC+ began to curtail production to ...
We see the Ukraine war reducing global growth, increasing inflation and putting central banks in a bind. We prefer developed stocks in the inflationary backdrop. Stocks led by European equities bounced from 2022 lows last week, as oil prices came off highs. The European Central Bank a...
The world may be trying to unplug the Russians from the global financial system, but there will be unintended consequences, the bulk of which we have yet to see. Oil could take out its 2008 high of $150 per barrel, and there are spillovers in other commodities - not just nickel - due ...
The U.S. ban on imports of Russian crude oil is effective immediately, while Britain said they will phase out Russian crude oil imports by the end of this year - meaning 9+ months of phased withdrawal. Europe is “hooked” on Russian energy, so Germany has come out against...
Global Majors are overhauling their downstream business due to pandemic-induced downturn and impending energy transition. The divestment spree of refineries will continue with the structural fuel demand decline and growing sensitivity towards carbon intensity. Going forward, the r...
US banned Russian crude and product imports. The most impacted will be on the product side. The weekly delta is ~3.3 million bbls. Integrated energy companies are going to benefit massively as refining margins roof. Canadian oil producers are going to be a big beneficiary from...
Inflation and its implications for real economic growth are the main portfolio positioning consideration of the conflict in Ukraine. On the 8th of March, the U.S. sanctioned Russian energy imports, giving companies 45 days to comply. Higher commodity prices are not the only factor...