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High energy prices will be a major political problem in both the European Union and the United States, especially if we get to $150 this summer. Any move in bond yields above 3.20% will be a major problem for the stock market. A slowdown in construction and improved supply to the ...
The European Union has decided not to accept any oil imports from Russia via ship, which allows Hungary to still receive Russian oil via pipelines. While not at full capacity, OPEC does not have that much more room to increase supply, so it is sticking with its slow pace of rebuilding...
The good news is that President Biden said that tackling inflation is his “top domestic policy.” The bad news is that the burden of fighting inflation falls mostly on the Fed raising key interest rates, which could depreciate asset values like homes and stock prices. Eur...
If you are an investor and sell every time your perception of uncertainty rises, you will avoid risk, but you will also miss opportunities. Our heightened state of awareness about uncertainty has us focused on the negative outcomes, assuming the worst-case scenarios will be realized. ...
Periods of low volume and relatively small moves are normally comforting and allow us to avoid making decisions. My biggest concern is that I may not see enough that is important and draw the wrong conclusions. I am increasingly concerned that several others, including some well-known...
At the end of April, Gazprom - a Russian gas company - stopped supplying Poland and Bulgaria as a consequence of the refusal to pay for gas in rubles, raising further concerns about the EU's energetic safety and the need for strategic diversification of energy resources imports. Histo...
Outside of Congress and the Federal Reserve, the White House is limited in what it can do to fight inflation. While we have seen the White House now focus efforts on refining capacity, our expectation is that the summer could see new record highs for gas prices in the U.S. The Whi...
My forecast is that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price will range between $110 to $130 per barrel during the month of June. With inflation in the high single digits in Europe and the US, central banks are determined to raise rates. During the past month, stocks have been vola...
Commodity markets remain vulnerable to Russia-Ukraine developments. Tightness in several commodities means that markets are likely to be more sensitive to any supply shocks. Tightness in energy and some agricultural commodities is set to persist for the foreseeable future. Disrupt...
Coming out of Memorial Day weekend, WTI crude oil closed out May with its sixth straight monthly gain, resulting in the second-longest streak going back to 1983. Since the US government stopped price controls on US crude oil in the early 1980s, there have only been six other periods w...