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One of the most useful intermediate-term indicators of the financial/economic landscape is the performance of industrial metals relative to gold as indicated by the GYX/gold ratio. There are signs in the equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets that a shift away from risk is unde...
When the markets goes on the make a new high and all economically sensitive sectors such as these do not confirm the new high, it is a clear signal the new highs are not being supported by economic fundamentals. We are seeing significant bearish divergences in almost all measures of b...
MSCI US REIT Index rallied 2.7% in June, which marks an impressive run of eight consecutive monthly increases. The Russell 3000 Index jumped 2.5% in June, the fifth straight monthly advance. Comparing GMI to US stocks and bonds shows that global asset allocation remains competitiv...
Headline inflation numbers have been brutal, with the CPI rising at rates that would normally call for a fast, hard tightening. Price trends in the industrial and agricultural commodities space are generally flattening, with only iron ore continuing higher. As supply chains unkink...
One risk on investors’ minds hasn’t been much of a factor in nearly a decade: inflation. By the end of 2020, despite real assets regaining some ground, the return deficit was –6.8%. Actually, when evaluated on multiple dimensions—inflation sensitivity, ...
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve advised Wednesday that interest rates would rise from record lows sometime in 2023, updating an earlier forecast of rises not until 2024. In the absence of any other driving dynamic, markets are taking direction from the dollar. The positive tak...
The global commodities complex continued to receive strong investor support over the past month as the world economy entered unfamiliar territory. All forms of transportation are experiencing delays (some intermittently), including ocean freight, air freight, trucking and rail. Ri...
Metals prices have increased by 72 percent relative to their pre-pandemic levels - reaching a nine-year high in May (in inflation adjusted terms). Copper is up 89 percent in May (year-over-year), iron ore is up 116 percent, and nickel is up 41 percent. Energy commodities (oil, coa...
The intention of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum was to stop the long-term decline of the US steel industry by protecting domestic producers from low-cost imports. However, the strategy shifted a substantial cost to steel consumers, who employ far more workers than the s...
China’s “zero tolerance” warning to commodity speculators over the weekend sent prices of some metals and iron ore tumbling. Bloomberg reported the government had also threatened severe punishment for violators indulging in excessive speculation and fake news in t...