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2024-02-06 10:51:00 ET Summary The total return of the S&P 500 remains behind Treasury bills since its January 2022 peak more than two years ago. Amid the enthusiasm and now nearly unanimous consensus that recession risk is behind us, I’ll reiterate our own view: the da...
2024-02-05 04:24:07 ET Summary The New Tenant Rent Index fell by 4.74% in Q4/23, more than in 2008, and this signals a deflationary recession. The New Tenant Rent Index leads the shelter inflation, which accounts for 44% of core CPI; thus, core CPI could turn negative by early 202...
2024-02-04 01:45:00 ET Summary Since early 2022, the FED lifted the federal funds rate by 5.25% to curb inflation, triggering speculation from pundits over the economic impact and future path of rate increases. Recently, the Fed noted that inflation has been tempered by restrictiv...
2024-02-03 01:23:01 ET Summary Whether it be a bull or a bear, staying with a trend increases the odds of success. No surprise, the Fed left rates unchanged and is effectively in "neutral". The Fed futures market has been wrong on Fed policy for two years. My stance hasn't cha...
2024-02-03 00:17:00 ET Summary The rise of the Magnificent Seven marks a shift in the type of company that grows to become a mega cap. Index methodology that requires a history of profitability would make these companies ineligible for index inclusion. Some of the top performi...
2024-02-01 09:09:34 ET Summary The sectors with the best value scores are energy, real estate and financials, whereas industrials and technology are the most overvalued. The market is skewed by mega-cap companies: measuring the bias with Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF. 7...
2024-01-31 04:28:00 ET Summary In Russell Investments’ factor portfolios, the Global Large Cap Growth, Momentum and Size factors outperformed the MSCI All-Country World Index during Q4, while the Global Large Cap Value and Low Volatility factors underperformed the index. The Gl...
2024-01-31 02:00:00 ET Summary If the Fed does happen to break something and the economy grinds to a halt, it can respond very quickly. We believe growth of 2.5% is very doable in the 2020s. Healthcare companies are fast becoming data companies. In their first walk o...
2024-01-30 11:20:00 ET Summary With all the talk of soft landing for the US economy in the media in recent weeks, we half expected to find the odds of a recession for the US economy had continued to recede over the past six weeks. After bottoming at 67% in the period from mid-Nove...
2024-01-30 04:42:00 ET Summary S&P 500 continued rising slowly to record a series of new highs for another four days before dipping 3.19 points to close out the trading week ending on Friday, 26 January 2024 at 4,890.97. The trajectory of the S&P 500 is much more consisten...
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2024-05-30 05:55:00 ET Even investors who only keep casual tabs on the stock market probably know most of its recent gains have been driven by Nasdaq -listed stocks such as Microsoft and Nvidia . Indeed, all seven of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks leading the charge th...
2024-05-23 19:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...