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When you need to borrow money the Mob seems like a better deal I think. 'You don't pay me back I break both yer legs.' Is that all? You won't take my house or wreck my credit rating? Fine where do I sign. Legs? Fine. You don't even have to sign anything. - Craig Ferguson We made it through...
Looking for clues In this article I'm going to look at three things. First, the facts as we know them. Second, the assumptions and narratives that are gaining the most traction in the media. And third, the range of possible outcomes and their likelihood. When you're off the rails, as we ar...
Retail Sales As expected, retails sales plunged 8.7% in March, as the nationwide shutdown took its toll on consumer spending. Spending on discretionary items collapsed, while purchases of necessities soared. Gasoline sales tanked 17.2% because no one is driving, with the one upside being t...
The decade of the 2010s was among the best for making money in stocks and bonds, but this current decade has not started so well due to COVID-19, or more appropriately the Wuhan Virus. All focus is currently on the Fed making everything better and returning to normal. The stock market is rec...
As a trader on the street we were trained to be contrarians - to be vigilant in avoiding the consensus. The consensus since March 23rd has been that the lows in the market were going to be tested and that investors were confident that they were going to be buyers when that time came. This is w...
The last four weeks witnessed an unprecedented level of jobs shut down in the U.S. (and elsewhere in the world). My earlier post here provided some comparatives. But here is a summary of jobs losses in every U.S. recessions from 1945 through 2019, and comparative figures for jobs losses i...
Originally published April 14, 2020 As I showed by using it again in last week's memo, I was impressed by the observation of Marc Lipsitch, Harvard epidemiologist, that there are (a) facts, (b) informed extrapolations from analogies to other viruses and (c) opinion or speculation. He said ...
When I last wrote, "The VIX Is Catching A Bid From Coronavirus," on February 26 th , I didn't have a clue to what extent the equity markets would plunge. The CBOE VIX has a way of quantifying fear and greed levels among retail investors and institutional money managers. I would have never th...
The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else .”― Adrian Rogers The market continued a remarkable rebound last week off its recent COVID-19 meltdown levels. Stocks have just staged their best two-week stretch s...
"I would never have thought a mutant flu virus could crash the global stock markets." - Steven Magee It is clear that the world is in uncharted territories. The COVID-19 outbreak continues to spread, with it easing in one country only for another to feel its wrath. The impact on human life...
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Actively managed funds designed to provide investors and advisors with differentiated tools for accessing income-generating investments. Infrastructure Capital Advisors (“InfraCap”), a leading provider of investment management solutions designed to meet the needs of in...
Actively managed fund is designed to provide investors and advisors with a value-focused, differentiated tool for accessing income-generating small cap equity exposure Infrastructure Capital Advisors (“InfraCap”), a leading provider of investment management solutions d...