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Current Picture Normally the US stock market moves at a pedestrian pace, with annual moves of about 10% (7% to 12%). We have just completed a two-month period that by statistical definition includes the fastest "bear market" in history and a recovery that would qualify as a one month "bull...
We have been preaching to all that you need to know what you own. This week was the prime example as the May crude contract traded at a price of negative $40 a barrel. One of the most common questions that I get as an investment advisor is how do we buy crude oil? That is the domain of the f...
I get a sense that I am approaching the end of this series of weekly posts, or perhaps I am just hoping that it is true, as the COVID crisis continued to play out in markets in the last two weeks, albeit on a more subdued scale and with a more positive twist. In this post, I will, as in the pr...
On a special, remotely recorded edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed the recent historic moves in oil markets, newly released macroeconomic data points and the outlook for first-quarter earnings season. ...
Reopening the economy The narrative has flipped from 'how much worse is this going to get' to 'how quickly can we reopen the economy.' We seem to have moved from pessimism to optimism. And based on the trajectory of the stock market, investors appear to be buying into the optimistic narrativ...
So just what was the " disruption " in the Treasury market that so spooked the Fed that now the Fed is buying more than the Treasury is selling? A commenter on my last post on corporate bonds points to Treasury Market Liquidity during the COVID-19 Crisis by Michael Fleming and Francisco ...
Market Stalls, Is The Bear Market Rally Over? Market rally stalls at resistance, is the “bear market rally over?” That’s the question we have been discussing over the last few weeks. So far, most of it has played out exactly as expected by turning previous “s...
The megabillion-dollar corporate bailouts raining down in the coronavirus response are giving new urgency to voices on the left excoriating corporate stock buybacks. How can we pour money into these firms, even as they pump gushers of money out the other end that could be spent on hiring and i...
The decline in growth of coronavirus cases and deaths in many parts of the U.S and countries overseas warrant the slow opening from the current lockdown, but it must be done judiciously maintaining degrees of social distancing, masks and lots of handwashing as any acceleration in cases would b...
By Robert Hughes The final April results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment fell sharply from the final March result, registering the second double-digit percentage decline in a row. Consumer sentiment decreased to 71.8 in April, down from ...
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