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The FOMC met this week for its first Fed funds interest rate decision since the two emergency cuts in March. As expected, the policy rate was left unchanged at 0% with the markets focusing more on the various relief measures in response to the coronavirus pandemic and now looking ahead towards...
First the set up for next week, is what happened this week Whether it’s a spurious correlation with this Thursday’s jobs number and the start of this torrid sell-off, it all has been "concretized." You would not be shocked to learn that I believe these two events are tightl...
One of the biggest complaints among investors since the recovery rally began has been the domination of the leading large-cap stocks. The inference is that only a relative handful of market-moving stocks have been responsible for the gains in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 ((SPX)) indices of late,...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on April 29, 2020, by James Hamilton here . The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP fell at a 4.8% annual rate in the first quarter of 2020. That's a rate of decline that we only see historically during ...
By Robert Hughes Real gross domestic product fell at a 4.8 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, down sharply from a mediocre 2.1 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2019, the worst performance since the final quarter of 2008 when the economy plunged 8.4 percent. Over the past fo...
Executive Summary The title of the piece gives homage to the New York Times business section byline from March 1982. SOURCE The 1982 recession occurred for much different reasons, yet the outcome was very similar - extreme unemployment. The 1982 recession was the worst economic d...
Group CIO Dan Ivascyn discusses how PIMCO is navigating market volatility, and how patient, risk-aware investors may benefit from attractive opportunities emerging in higher-quality fixed income. David Fisher: Hi, I'm David Fisher, and I'm here once again, at least in a virtual sens...
Transcript: I'm Jason Kelly with The Kelly letter. Thanks for watching today. I have noticed in my inbox and phone calls and other means of communicating with subscribers, that people still aren't quite getting the spirit of my signal plans, which take away all stress from indecision ...
"U.S. GDP will contract 30% in second quarter." Thus blared an 8 April headline from Reuters , apparently intended to sow as much panic as possible. In the Great Depression, real GDP shrank by about 27% from the 1929 top to the 1933 bottom. So the Reuters headline heralds what amounts t...
In Part I , we saw how Shiller's CAPE ratio suggests something like a decade of low returns in the stock market, and how the present supercycle in inflation, tied perhaps to some post-gold-standard form of Kondratiev Waves and supercycles in technology, suggests a period of very low inflation...
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