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The current lack of FOMC consensus is a signal of a wider lack of consensus at the Fed on how to implement its new monetary policy framework in detail. These twin consensus deficits have been exposed at the critical time of the US Presidential election. The US economy and the Fed&...
Disinflationary/deflationary pressures are more likely in the near term according to our popular ST leading indicators. There is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines at the moment, implying that investors are more worried about uncertainty than inflation. However, investors shou...
This is a weekly series focused on analyzing the previous week’s economic data releases. The objective is to concentrate on leading indicators of economic activity to determine whether the economy is strengthening or weakening, and the rate of inflation is increasing or decreas...
Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% for a second month in a row, driven by autos, gasoline, clothing and airfares, but the year-over-year rate remains a tepid 1%. This is down from the 2.5% rate at the start of the year. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, ...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on August 3, 2020, by Menzie Chinn here . Here are five key indicators referenced by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee in Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding...
If something is true, no amount of wishful thinking will change it . Richard Dawkins US Gross Domestic Product ((GDP)) decreased 7% in the second quarter of 2020, the largest quarterly decrease since World War II. Reports sensationalize this 7% loss by annualizing it to 32%. Also, in the qu...
The essential macroeconomic problem There's an entire school of economics based upon the idea that we can't actually know, in detail, what's happening out there. The economy is simply too complex for us to ever be able to gain accurate and timely information about it. Hayek gained his Nobel ...
After cheering reopening progress at the outset of the month, investors took a breath as coronavirus outbreaks in several states threatened the economic recovery. There is a fair amount of data that suggests the US economy is on the mend: The latest retail sales, consumer spending, durable g...
Among all viral topics, which are at the top of the global economic agenda, I'd like to focus on a likely post- COVID V-shaped recovery, but from a slightly different perspective. When in March-May 2020 many governments announced their plans to support national economies by adopting massive st...
The concern over corporate debt is a growing concern. I have been a contributor to this concern as the depth of the problem continues to grow. Global debt is soaring. US government debt is soaring. And, so day this debt burden is going to have to be dealt with," I wrote. And the burd...
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