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It is impossible to avoid all risks. I attempt to identify as many risks as possible and manage these risks by addressing them. All assets have embedded risks, whether we can identify them or not. Should one invest in growth or value? In examining eleven time periods, the average grow...
The breakneck pace of the COVID-driven decline and restart has made for one unprecedented economic and market cycle. We begin the second half positioned for recovery, while also safeguarding against potential bouts of market angst. We remain constructive on U.S. stocks as the economic...
Since offshoring contributed to the long-term disinflationary trend, it would seem to make sense that reshoring would contribute to an inflationary trend. The "reshoring will lead to higher inflation" argument revolves around differences in labor costs, which are much higher in the US...
At Mutual Series, we buy stocks at a discount to what they are worth, taking an objective view of the economic value of the company’s assets and growth prospects. Economic value reflects an asset’s potential contribution to cash flow growth and the company’s compe...
The US recovery is gaining momentum as the country reopens parts of its economy — boosted by government stimulus and vaccine rollouts. The impact of the global pandemic opened up new opportunities for equity investors. While growth stocks outperformed over much of the last ...
The last two months have been boring, but it doesn't mean that boring is bad; quite the contrary. Value keeps outperforming growth. Nine months and counting. Rotation (Value vs Growth), Inflation (transitory or fundamental), Consolidation (beginning vs ending) are not necessarily ...
Innovation advances business practices, services, and products, and when it permeates the economy, innovation increases productivity, and spurs economic wealth creation. Growth stocks, because of the longer duration of their earnings, can be very sensitive to rising interest rates and...
As the U.S. birth rate fell to a new low in 2020, it appears that COVID-19 and associated economic weakness/uncertainty has accelerated a preexisting trend of falling American fertility. If 2008-level fertility rates had persisted through 2020, 5.8 million more babies would have been ...
The rotation from growth to value is accelerating. The combination of higher inflation, lower US dollar, and higher yields could be lethal for momentum stocks. The Fed is way behind the curve, but we believe that Jay Powell will be forced to acknowledge reality soon. Meanwhile...
Are you familiar with the "Aggression Scale?" Instead of the common classifications, it's measuring sectors based on their volatility, cyclicality, and growth. Three sectors currently are making it to the top of the "Aggression Scale." Technology is only one of those. Can we be ov...
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2024-07-18 04:20:00 ET The S&P 500 not only confirmed a bull market earlier in the year, but it also delivered a very solid first half. The index rose by double digits, marking one of the best such periods in the past 25 years. This year's first half was the fifth best during that t...
2024-06-24 12:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...