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Outspoken former Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth joined Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a no-punches-pulled conversation about the Federal Reserve during our recent Hedgeye Investing Summit . As she explains in the brief excerpt from the interview below, Fed Chair Jerome Powell qui...
As I stated in December 2019, keep your eyes on the bond markets in 2019. And, I believe, watching the bond markets has given us the most interesting insights into the economic situation and the attitude of investors available. The latest bounce in the bond markets came in the last half of M...
Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The yield for 10-year Treasuries fell below the yield for the 3-month T-Bill. The inversion set off alarm bells and US stocks fell sharply. While concerns are reasoned, the alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is an hist...
Getting long U.S. Treasury bonds has been a lucrative, contrarian move for Hedgeye subscribers for many months now. And while Hedgeye has been bullish on bonds since the end of September, the latest CFTC non-commercial futures and options contract data shows that Wall Street is—beli...
Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...
I failed to follow my own advice this week. I put in an order to buy my full 2019 allotment of U.S. Series I Savings Bonds on March 28. Why? Because the time is right to buy I Bonds . My usual advice, repeated yearly , is to hold off on purchasing I Bonds until two "limbo periods" each yea...
Is it different this time? Popular measures of the yield curve, including the 10-year vs. 3-month Treasury spread, have inverted which has caused interest rates to move to the front page. Interest rates are always on my front page in terms of analyzing markets and we accurately predicted t...
There’s no real nice way to say that I found Wednesday's FOMC minutes to be disgraceful. The only conclusion I’m left with is that Jerome Powell has capitulated and is now scared of either the market turning on him, the president turning on him or both. Otherwise, how do you expl...
A reopening auction today of a 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security generated a real yield to maturity of 0.578%, the lowest for this term since January 2018. The reopening of CUSIP 9128285W6 created a 9-year, 10-month TIPS. It carries a coupon rate of 0.875%, which was set by the...
S&P 500: What Is Priced In Today? Starting in January of this year, I started to write about the earnings expectations that are priced into the S&P 500 or the more commonly traded SPDR S&P 500 Trust ( SPY ) ETF. I started in January by writing a research note, which you can fi...
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2024-07-24 11:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 13:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...