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Earlier this year, I penned a research note detailing a data-driven approach to measuring recession risk. You can read that note from February by clicking here . In that note, which you should read prior to this note if you have not done so, I outline the official definition of a recessi...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials are monitoring the implications of the trade war and "will act as appropriate to sustain the [economic] expansion." Powell even seems warm to the idea of bringing back quantitative easing (aka "QE") and removing the " unconvent...
On Tuesday, just after 4:00 AM in New York, Mario Draghi delivered a series of remarks at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, that sent bond yields and the euro tumbling. If you want to hear it directly from Draghi, you can watch the video here . Draghi's comments were, to a certain...
When the market falls in the trap of wishful thinking History warns us about not confusing what is true versus what we wish to be true , as Ray Dalio identified in his book Principles. Yet wishful thinking - the attribution of reality to what one wants to believe - is one of the most co...
We're Worried Because Any change in interest rates, in either direction, is the major macroeconomic factor we're worried about as investors. It's the great unknown in the current economy, which way are central banks going to jump? As long as we don't see inflation coming then we can assume t...
The U.S. Treasury on Thursday will reopen CUSIP 9128286N5 , auctioning $15 billion of a 4-year, 10-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Security. This is an especially interesting auction because it follows six months of rather dramatic yield declines. A TIPS is an Treasury investment with a ...
ETF Overview The iShares TIPS Bond ETF ( TIP ) focuses on inflation-protected bonds in the United States. The ETF tracks the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index. TIP has low credit risk, as the bond is backed by the credit of the U.S. government. However, its weighte...
One of the most humbling things I have learned to do in my short 30 years of life is to openly admit when I make a mistake. My reason for doing this is that I believe the fastest way to build trust is by telling the truth even when the outcome doesn't necessarily have a major impact on the per...
Treasury bond volatility is picking up. That’s a big red flag for the credit market – and yet another sign that the U.S. economic cycle is slowing. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Macro analyst Darius Dale explain in the clip above how a rise in bond market volatility ...
The common assumption is that bonds are screaming RECESSION right now, while the stock market refuses to hear it. This isn’t entirely true. While the stock market’s long term risk:reward is certainly not bullish, the economic data suggests that a U.S. recession is not imminent. ...
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2024-07-24 11:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 13:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...