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The near-term outlook for inflation continues to suggest a temporary spike, reflecting an adjustment higher in price levels as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic. In Europe, we expect GDP to normalize to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with inflation remaining l...
We have been bullish on TIPS since the March 2020 selloff, reiterating our position more recently following the February selloff. Despite the strong gains seen, we remain bullish. SCHP appears to be consolidating around its all-time highs, with the hold above the March 2020 highs, sug...
When the ECB was founded, it adopted inflation targeting with the implicit assumption that the purpose of the policy was to hold down inflation. In 2020, the Fed adopted an average inflation targeting policy with the implicit assumption that it would be used to push inflation higher w...
CPI estimates for last month represented a seismic shift in the inflation debate. Producer prices, or PPI, came up even more over the moon than those for consumers. Transitory inflation is no inflation at all; unusually low nominal and real yields all around. You really have to wo...
As the U.S. birth rate fell to a new low in 2020, it appears that COVID-19 and associated economic weakness/uncertainty has accelerated a preexisting trend of falling American fertility. If 2008-level fertility rates had persisted through 2020, 5.8 million more babies would have been ...
The U.S. 10-Year-Treasury yield is quietly rising in Wednesday’s trading session and has risen ten basis points since the close last week on Thursday, May 6th. The U.S. 10-Year-Treasury yield has now climbed three days in a row and is rising again today, now up four basis points.With t...
Markets are still grappling with the Federal Reserve's new framework, leading to a disconnect between market pricing and the Fed’s projections for rates. U.S. job growth unexpectedly slowed in April. We believe near-term activity data will unlikely affect the Fed’s polic...
Volatility returned to government bond markets in April, amid a flood of central bank decisions and noteworthy economic data. The largest movement came from the Portuguese 10-year government bond, whose mid-yield surged by nearly 27 basis points to close at 0.49%, the highest level si...
Reopening 2 is definitely happening. The bond market surveys the future as only it has been able and contrarily sees less-than-full recovery. While we focus on US payrolls and their wow factor, the rest of the global economy actually doesn't look anything like them. For furt...
While many yields are at, or near, their historic lows, opportunity remains in select segments of emerging-market debt, triple B-rated corporate bonds and certain areas of the mortgage-securities market. A good way to approach value stocks has been to find those that are attractively ...
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2024-06-14 13:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 13:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-15 12:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...