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2023-07-18 09:35:00 ET Summary The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.2% in June - and only 3% in the past 12 months - very close to the Fed’s 2% goal. Producer Price Index provided even better news, as it rose only 0.1% in June, the slowest rate in almost three years. Treasu...
2023-07-18 06:30:00 ET Summary Inflation dominated the headlines and there was widespread consensus among economists that a recession was imminent. The Fed has raised the Fed Funds rate multiple times this year, but those rate increases have clearly done nothing to slow the econom...
2023-07-17 12:57:00 ET Summary A few weeks ago, it appeared to me that stocks were starting a correction. I was clearly wrong about that as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have moved higher since then and the rally has broadened out. Small cap, real estate, and commodities continue to ...
2023-07-17 11:10:00 ET Summary We favor emerging market to developed market assets on a brighter macro backdrop. We get granular and harness mega forces, per our playbook. U.S. bond yields slumped last week on softer CPI inflation data. We think still-tight labor markets will comp...
2023-07-17 09:40:00 ET Summary Bear markets feature not only substantial percentage losses but dramatic rebounds which exceed the percentage gains achieved during bull markets and also happen more quickly. Thus, it is necessary to keep switching from being net long, to net short, to n...
2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...
2023-07-16 05:30:00 ET Summary Obviously, AI has supercharged the indexes, for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Small businesses tend to feel the impact of monetary tightening with a lag compared to larger companies. The Fed, although they haven’t come out and said it, t...
2023-07-14 21:43:00 ET Summary Can bonds provide the returns in the second half that were expected in the first? The case for staying the course for fixed income. Why that fixed income strategy may be facing a timing problem. Originally published on July 6,...
2023-07-14 11:00:00 ET Summary This week’s news on consumer inflation supports the case for expecting that the Fed's interest rate hikes are approaching the end game. Core inflation’s descent is still relatively sticky, which leaves more room for caution compared wit...
2023-07-12 21:12:00 ET Summary The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also predominantly Keynesian, so they believe in the Phillips Cur...
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2024-07-24 11:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-13 23:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...