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The pace of economic growth accelerated in Japan at the end of the second quarter according to the latest business surveys. Lockdowns in mainland China were commonly cited as a key cause of the ongoing bottlenecks. Any hawks at the Bank of Japan will be encouraged by both the shar...
Russia's war with Ukraine and recent lockdowns in mainland China have further disrupted supply chains, adding to cost pressures. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points at its mid-June meeting and signaled its determination to return inflation to 2%, acknowled...
We see the Fed on a path to raise rates far enough this year to hurt growth. The U.S. activity restart from the pandemic could grind to a halt in coming quarters. The Fed lifted rates by 0.75% in a rush to normalize policy, its biggest hike since 1994. Other central banks joined, send...
This “inflation” is just the cover for the harmful redistribution of last year’s global supply shock (not money printing dollars). The global economy is clearly hitting the wall of the supply shock and reacting just as markets and curves have been pricing for well...
The concerns rest on the fact that global manufacturing growth has weakened amid ongoing supply constraints and soaring prices, leaving growth reliant on the service sector. May saw the S&P Global US Composite PMI fall from 56.0 to a four-month low of 53.6. Although economic g...
Aside from the Bank of Japan, major central banks are in a hurry to tighten financial conditions even as a cyclical slowdown weakens demand. The Bank of England hiked its base rate by 25 bp, but increased its inflation projection and warned of more forceful action if necessary. Th...
This past week felt like a big moment for central banks, collectively, as well as financial markets more broadly. There are still those like the BoE that still believe that slow and steady will win the race, or the BoJ that doesn’t actually have an inflation problem, but rather...
Before the supply-constrained economy that emerged after Covid, and the war in Ukraine, attempts of a sustained rise in global short-term interest rates had to contend with the fact that at least two major central banks, the ECB and the BOJ were stuck in the mud at the zero bound. Now...
The market recognizes a strong consensus has emerged at the FOMC for 50 bp hikes in June, but the unexpectedly strong CPI report before the weekend saw the market price in about a 50% chance of a 75 bp hike in July. In May, the FOMC statement acknowledged the contraction in Q1 GDP but...
The latest PMI data compiled for JPMorgan by S&P Global revealed an unwelcome mix of sluggish global economic growth and soaring business costs in May. Although global output growth picked up slightly in May, it remained at one of the weakest levels seen so far in the pandemic rec...
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2024-05-23 23:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-13 23:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 13:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...