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2024-05-21 11:30:00 ET Summary When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a reliable forecast that a recession is near. The curve has been inverted since July 2022, the longest inversion on record, but a recession has...
2024-05-21 09:00:00 ET Summary SGOV, an ETF focused on 0-3 month Treasury bonds, remains an attractive option for income investors in a higher-for-longer rate environment. SGOV has generated a 1.72% return since January 22nd and offers a yield of over 5%. The yield curve norma...
2024-05-20 10:50:00 ET Summary Whatever traders and investors were focused on last week, the result was a drop in interest rates across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by about 8 basis points. Over the last month, with the 10-year yield down a little over 16 ba...
2024-05-20 02:53:00 ET Summary The US economy grew 3.1% last year, trouncing widespread calls for a recession and exceeding my relatively sober expectation for 2% growth. The correct way to view the interplay between growth and inflation is to first understand that high inflation ...
2024-05-17 01:00:00 ET Summary Following a run of stronger-than-expected inflation prints, S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts now expect an initial rate cut by the Federal Reserve at December's meeting. Forecasts of initial policy rate reductions have been pushed ba...
2024-05-17 00:00:00 ET Summary The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payrolls has averaged monthly gains of over 233k over the past year. By all standards, that is a healthy number, especially considering the federal funds rate has been above 5% over that same time per...
2024-05-16 14:30:00 ET Summary US CPI improves the inflation picture. US inflation is improving but some aspects are still troubling for the Fed. What the US bond market tells us about the outlook for rates. ... Read the full article on Seeking Alpha ...
2024-05-16 12:30:00 ET Summary The move shows central banks aren’t waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and it indicates confidence that the European Central Bank will cut in June. The Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers’ Index hit an 11-month high in Apri...
2024-05-16 01:15:00 ET Summary “Higher for Longer” should read “Normal for Longer”. The post-Covid, post-globalization era ushers in a world of permanently higher inflation. A record 4.1 million “baby boomers” reach retirement age in 2...
2024-05-15 22:25:00 ET Summary The April CPI reading delivered the first (slight) downside inflation surprise since the turn of the year, easing niggling concerns that inflation was starting to trend upwards again. Headline CPI slowed to 0.3% month-on-month, slightly weaker than t...
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2024-06-24 14:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 15:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-02 23:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...