1 Number That Has to Change Before I Buy Shake Shack Shares

2026-01-18 16:02:00 ET

Fast-casual dining chain Shake Shack (NYSE: SHAK) had a big year in 2025. The company announced a massive expansion plan that would more than triple its store count to 1,500 company-owned and licensed locations. The one-time hot dog stand opened 30 new stores as of its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, with plans to ramp that up to 55 to 60 new stores in 2026.

Perhaps most impressively, it delivered same-store-sales growth of 4.9% year over year, at a time when fast-food traffic declined 1.1% nationwide, according to the data company Revenue Management Solutions. To pull off mid-single-digit same-store sales growth in 2025 strikes me as a huge achievement, considering how fast-food executives are lamenting challenging macroeconomic conditions and pinched consumers in seemingly every earnings call.

For context, Chipotle Mexican Grill just saw its first same-store sales decline in 20 years, while Wendy's shares are down 43% in a year in which the company announced a 4.7% slump in same-store sales and plans to close hundreds of U.S. stores. Arby's closed dozens of stores across America in 2025, while McDonald's CEO Christopher Kempczinski announced a 10% slump in lower-income customer visits in Q3 amid a "challenging" pricing environment.

Continue reading