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Due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions and embargoes - on top of the already interrupted supply chain, plus a new COVID outbreak in China - global trade is grinding down to a slow-motion “holding” action. As a result of these disruptions, PMIs all over the...
The rise in long-term interest rates continues to crush the value of growth stocks. Valuations are coming down rapidly into what are more reasonable historical ranges. We need to see corporate profits exceed estimates by 7% in order to preserve the sequential growth. That shou...
Looking back historically, high levels of inflation combined with Fed tightening of monetary policy led to either a recession, bear market, or a crisis. During the first couple of months of 2022, hedge funds went into liquidation mode. Over the last six months, the market has made...
The Department of Labor’s March establishment survey, based on data gathered from businesses, showed that American employers added back nearly half a million jobs and are now just 1.5 million jobs below peak employment. For the first week of April, jobless claims came in at jus...
Gasoline prices leapt 45% over the past year, and the UN Food and Agriculture food price index, rose 34 percent to an all-time high in March. It’s illuminating to note that the S&P 500 materials sector is no higher today than it was in mid-November for all the inflationary ...
Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield ri...
AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February and a 13-point gain in January. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the total number of job opening...
Jimmy Xu: Volatility has been more pronounced in fixed income than equities in 2022. Xu: Volatility is uneven across different asset classes. Xu: We have been creating diversification through the use of options, especially in the equity space. For further details see: Wh...
The broader equity categories turned in negative results in Q1. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, held up the best at a decline of 4.6%. Bonds performed worse than many of the equity categories, despite typically being viewed as a safe haven investment. In t...
The union movement is strengthening. Treasury yields are rising sharply. The weekly charts show that the markets are repricing risk. For further details see: The Weekly Charts Show A Broad Repricing Of Risk (Technically Speaking For 4/11)
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...