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High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The good news is the yield curve has almost completely normalized, with the 10 year minus 2 year and 3 month sp...
There has been a surge in consumer spending on services in recent months. Inflation in retail sales means inflation in durable goods and in nondurable goods. Stimulus Miracle March 2021 was a very tough month to beat. For further details see: Retail Sales Vs. Raging Infl...
From the perspective of an inflation-targeting central bank, the problem is that most of these short-run effects are outside of their control. Many businesses built their models around workers having no bargaining power, as well relying on hidden costs that are borne by workers. M...
After a long weekend, Wall Street is ready to dive back into earnings season. With the ECB taking its time to wrap up bond-buying and start raising rates, it would take something quite substantial to rock the boat. It would appear gold isn’t going to extend its winning run ...
This is the ninth-lowest reading for the weekly survey's bullish sentiment going back to 1987. This week's reading is near the spread level reached during the 2008/2009 financial crisis. The sentiment measures are contrarian ones and are most actionable at their extremes. Fo...
Strategies for navigating headwinds facing financial markets. Outlook for equities and fixed income. Why there's a strong case for Canadian equities. For further details see: A Strong Case For Canadian Equities This Year: TD Asset Management CIO
The preliminary April results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment bounced higher in early April after hitting a multiyear low in March. The rebound in consumer sentiment, particularly in future expectations, may have been a knee-jerk re...
Despite the uptick, claims remain below the January – February 2020 average of 212,000 prior to the lockdowns. The four-week average rose slightly in the latest week, coming in at 172,250, up 2,000 from the prior week but just the second increase in the last 11 weeks. Despi...
This week marks one of only 35 weeks since the AAII survey began in 1987 that bullish sentiment was below 20%; the most recent being only back in February when it fell to 19.2%. As could be expected, the huge drop and the historic low in bullish sentiment was met with a coincident inc...
Stocks started earnings season off on a positive note. The Producer Price Index looks to have peaked alongside the Consumer Price Index. Long-term inflation expectations continue to tick lower. Listen to the market and focus on the rates of change in leading indicators. ...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...