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Investors have been processing high inflation reports, rising interest rates, surging energy, commodity, and real estate prices. So, what is the market saying about which markets investors have favored the last couple of years vs where are they putting their money right now? A way...
Investors face a trifecta of worries: rate hikes, inflation and volatility. In Q1 2022, equity markets took stock of a changing economic and geopolitical landscape. Looking forward, economic and geopolitical uncertainty will likely increase. For further details see: Look...
Higher (forward-looking) implied volatility suggests rates have moved to a durably higher regime. This means investors’ risk appetite will remain soft for the time being, and central banks should refrain from active asset sales. Fears of more lockdowns in China are bringing...
Preliminary PMI survey data showed economic growth slowing in the US and UK as strong pandemic rebounds showed signs of fading. In contrast, a reopening of economies in the eurozone and Japan helped drive improvements, helping to offset weakened manufacturing performances arising from...
A fall of 20% from a former peak is called a bear market, a decline of 10% is labeled a correction, and a smaller decline is called a market phase. Today, the three popular US stock market indices can each be labeled with a different name. No wonder there is confusion concerning the c...
A yield curve inversion is not a necessary prerequisite for a recession. In the post-World War II era, several recessions happened without the Fed raising rates significantly, if at all. Rather, these recessions followed the old inflationary Boom followed by the deflationary Bust ...
Only one major asset was up last week: REITs. There were some negative developments that might explain the selling. With the drop in commodities and fears about the impact of the China slowdown, the immediate effect should be for inflation and growth expectations to moderate. We didn&...
Historically, a recession followed when 50% or more of the tracked yield curves became inverted. Every time. Interestingly, many of the data points suggesting the “economy is booming” are lagging indicators subject to significant negative revisions in the future. Eve...
The invasion of Ukraine is an inflationary shock to an already inflationary system. The International Energy Agency has warned that the impact on oil supply will peak only from May onwards. Since the war broke out, core government bonds have suffered sustained price declines unsee...
With a little over 100 S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 results so far, the consensus estimate for earnings per share growth for the quarter is now 6.6 percent, up from 4.5 percent just three weeks ago. The improved profitability outlook would seem to be good news for anyone w...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...