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Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell slightly, decreasing 5,000 for the week ending April 23, coming in at 185,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.464 million for the week ending April 9, a drop of 102,848 from the prior ...
GDP growth figures are notorious for revisions, but the headline number missed pretty badly, coming in at -1.4% annualized after inflation vs. an estimate of +1.0%. Here in Texas, restaurants that were packed this time last year on weeknights are only about half full, while road traff...
Investors are concerned about the impact the latest wave of Covid in China will have on the global supply chain. The greatest impact will be on China's economic growth in the second quarter, but stimulus should follow. U.S. multinationals seem to be effectively navigating this lat...
The Census Bureau’s latest advanced estimates for March trade show wholesale inventories jumped again, another 2.3% month-over-month during March. And that was on top of a slightly higher revised estimate for February. March’s wholesale inventories figure of 2.3% was the...
The Fed has little control over today’s goods inflation, driven by supply-chain, COVID stimulus, and war. Every time the Fed has increased rates to fight inflation historically, unemployment has increased. Recent events have put an even greater spotlight on energy independe...
Stocks fell earlier this week for the same reasons they’ve been falling all year: high inflation, the Federal Reserve’s attempt to cool it, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. About 90% of S&P 500 stocks fell on Tuesday. Money rushed to safe havens, such as Trea...
The S&P 500 and the US government bond index are now down about 12% from their highs (similar to Canada’s treasury bond index). Of course, Treasuries have guaranteed income payments and maturity dates, while stocks have none. In recent years, global equities have had an...
Ideally, we’d have a highly liquid NGDP futures market. Unfortunately, we are still in the Stone Age of macroeconomics. The stance of monetary policy is not a single number; it’s a vector. The simplest explanation for what’s going on is that the Fed is gradual...
Recovery from the COVID-19 recession has been characterized by resilient demand amid a series of supply disruptions. If inflation proves more persistent, more aggressive monetary policy tightening would be necessary, which restrains demand. The steep rise in global food and fuel p...
Analyst consensus estimates now put the net income of S&P 500 companies as a whole at 4.3% year-on-year growth in Q1. But with inflation running at a 7.9% pace, that means that in real terms, earnings growth is now negative. Strip out the effect of the spike in the energy sector's...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...