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It’s been a brutal few months for stocks and bonds alike, as markets have been confronted with risks posed by inflation, tightening monetary policy, and the war in Ukraine. Market volatility has lifted bond yields, which can create better long-term investment opportunities and ...
The increase in median household income for March 2022 was much smaller than the increase in the median new home sale price recorded for the month. March 2022's median household income was just 17.5% of the value of the median new home sold during the month. The average mortgage p...
As I said last February, Fed tightening is not a near-term threat. M2 is now about $4.8 trillion larger than it would have been with a continuation of 6% annual growth. Outright sales of securities, when they do occur, won't be large and should be easily digested by the bond marke...
Fed hikes key interest rate by 50 basis points as expected. Colbourne: Fed comments appeared slightly dovish despite the risks of inflation. Colbourne: We are concerned about the trajectory of inflation and if it stays sticky and doesn't come down. For further details see: ...
The map of the Asset Allocation Committee’s market views is a buzz of activity this quarter. Coming into 2022, we anticipated slower growth compared with the steep recovery levels of 2021 and inflation that was declining but persistent—and problematic due to its origins ...
There are no good choices left for central banks in the US and Japan. They can’t both fight inflation and fund their government’s debts with low interest rates. The debt bubble has been long in the works, but there are no options left to deal with it in a painless way. I...
In January, the bubble indicator showed that the US equity market as a whole was at the edge of a bubble but not in an extreme bubble. The earnings growth discounted in stocks is still a bit high. While the reversal has been significant, discounting of future earnings remains some...
It’s important to note that margin debt may be merely representative of a much larger use of leverage in things like asset-backed loans, call options, futures, leveraged ETFs, total return swaps, etc. The recent peak in the annual rate-of-change in the amount of margin debt out...
Market commentary I have been seeing has had an unusual split: warnings about the collapse of the bond market, as well as imminent recession. The preliminary report for U.S. Q1 real GDP was released last week, which registered an annualised decline of -1.4%. Although there are som...
The JPMorgan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™), compiled by S&P Global, fell from 52.9 in March to a 20-month low of 52.2 in April. April also saw global new orders almost stall, registering only a marginal increase which was the smallest since June 20...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...