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There is no shortage of reasons for inflation’s push higher this year – commodity shortages due to the war in Ukraine, continued demand for housing amidst strong fundamentals, and low inventory and fresh lockdowns in China creating new waves of supply chain issues. Reces...
Jobless claims have continued to tick higher, with this week’s reading rising to 218K, an increase of 21K versus last week’s print which was revised back below 200K to 197K. Historically, unadjusted claims have fallen week-over-week more than three-quarters of the time i...
Recession risks are rising, with a European recession, oil embargo risks, and China’s zero-Covid uncertainties adding to Fed rate hikes as headwinds. China’s risks are multi-layered and hard for markets to discount. In our view, IMF officials are much more precise in...
A recession is not two-quarters of negative GDP. The US economy is not in a recession today but is on a pre-recessionary path. The labor market will determine if the US economy falls into a recession in the next 6-8 months. The risk of a recession is rising with each passing d...
The primary concern for the public is by far inflation, not recession risk, and not the risk of a bear market in stocks given news headlines as a gauge of importance. The prior tightening seen in financial markets (10-yr UST yield jump) will likely weigh on future growth as measured b...
Concerns about inflation adversely impacting the consumer and corporate profitability appeared to drive the weakness. The consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors led today’s decline, trading down around 5% and 6%, respectively. Given the compounding uncertainty ...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 21,000 for the week ending May 14, coming in at 218,000. The latest result is the highest level since January 22. The latest results for the combined Federal and state programs put the total number of people claiming ben...
The S&P 500 plunges to its worst day since June 2020, led by the Consumer Staples sector. Bonds catch a bid amid a classic risk-off trading environment. Where the market could head next as a re-test of the lows is underway. For further details see: Assessing The Dama...
The US central bank seems to have underestimated the intensity, duration, and perhaps the number of inflationary pressures we are faced with, which is why they probably acted so late. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting West-Russia economic conflicts risk exacerbating in...
Trading price in its rawest form is simply plotting and studying price without the use of moving averages, stochastics, RSI, or other technical indicators. A longer-term analysis of price is showing us that the 2022 low is lower than the lowest price that the QQQ had traded in 2021. ...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...