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Estimates from the National Federation of Independent Business suggest that the labor market might be on its way to cooling down. NFIB’s compensation plans index fell to 25% from its peak in December 2021 - still a lot, but considerably lower than their plans just a few months ...
The most recent CEO Confidence Index suggests that most leaders are concerned about the economy over the next few quarters. Businesses are gloomy because consumer confidence, which is where they derive their revenue and profits, suggests dismal growth ahead. Fed rate hiking campai...
After months of hand-wringing, U.S. indexes are now in bear market territory across the board, down 20% from their most recent highs. Right now, markets are caught in a tug-of-war between what may happen in the future—as a result of what the Fed does to control inflation—...
We think the Federal Reserve is likely to remain hawkish both in policy and communication until there is a turn in either the labor data or an improvement in inflation. Housing activity is already decelerating and is at the leading edge of Fed policy. As housing activity slows, pricin...
People get surprised by the ferocity of bear markets, but they shouldn’t be. They get shocked at losing money on paper, and thus the selloffs happen more rapidly. Market expectations of inflation over the next ten years are well below the 4.7% you can earn on an average 10-year...
In order to extend the rally in the stock market, we needed good news on the inflation front, and we needed the bond market to remain well-behaved. The resulting declines late Thursday and early Friday came quickly, putting us back in a situation where a retest of the May lows seems l...
The S&P 500 is now officially in a bear market. 73% of all stocks are now down 20% or more, with the median stock down by -29.4%. The causes of today's rout were an inflation hangover and recession fears. The next shoe to drop could be a 75 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate. T...
Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. Even with March's bump in growth, money supply growth remains far below the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. The money supply metric us...
Over the past quarter-century, central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have often stepped in and eased monetary policy when equity markets sold off. Now that inflation has risen to above 8% in both Europe and the U.S., lowering rates when the equit...
At least one Wall Street bank is calling on the Federal Reserve to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.75%, just ahead of the central bank’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 14 and 15. Bond yields rise in response to inflation and the Fed’s rate hikes. ...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...