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Commodities (used in the production of goods) are considered a leading indicator of inflation. Recessions are a normal corrective phase of the economic cycle, but politicians, central banks, most financial advisors, and economists never see them coming. Central bank policies can h...
Chair Powell laid out in unequivocal terms last week that the Fed’s primary goal is to reduce inflation pressures, and the policymaker’s commitment is “unconditional.”. The May Leading Economic Indicators Index posted its third consecutive monthly decline. ...
As of June 2022, the United States is not in stagflation, nor is most of the world, but it’s likely coming. The root cause is the timing effects of monetary policy. Tighter monetary policy curbs the demand for goods and services. Employment falls first, and only later does infl...
AAON's "story" appeared to be a good one, embraced by investors even before the increase in business due to COVID-19. Unfortunately for investors, the reality is not matching the rhetoric, and results achieved immediately following restructuring, and addition of new modern plant, are ...
The rhythm of the markets has gradually, but permanently, changed over the last 40 years. Despite the (relatively) positive trend in reopening sectors of the economy, the labor market is showing signs of slowing. For now, inflation is the “singular mandate” of major ...
Whether or not we will have a recession is no longer a question. The recession is already here. The only question is, how deep the recession will become. Q1 GDP posted a reading of -1.4%, and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for Q2 is 0.0%. This means the US economy shrank during the ...
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. Markets have faced a laundry list of concerns this year, including new COVID-19 lockdowns and an economic slowdown in China, the Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation, and central-bank tightening. We think ...
We expect elevated inflation to continue into 2023 due to the lagged impact of food supply disruption and elevated energy costs. Should a recession occur, its scale is likely to be limited by the reduced number of negative feedback loops. Consumers enter this slowdown with a large...
The Cheesecake Factory is attractive on many levels. It trades far below its past valuation and figures are still recovering. The share price is too severely punished while the company's fundamental figures improved. Long-term investors get a bargain with significant upside potential....
The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board fell again in June, the second drop in a row and seventh in the last twelve months. For the present situation index components, current business conditions and employment conditions weakened slightly. Inflation expectations r...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...