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The prospect of slower interest rate rises has significant implications for market positioning. Economic growth sensitivity is likely to become increasingly important as recession risks rise. Regime shifts from expansion to contraction can be volatile, which means deviating away f...
When a recession isn't really a recession. How the job market has remained strong, despite economic headwinds. Is an economic soft landing still possible? The U.S. economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Even so, there is doubt about ...
The jobs report today was much stronger than expected. That's causing rates to rise significantly. Today's data likely kills any hopes for a dovish FOMC pivot. Any hopes for a dovish Fed pivot were killed instantly today on the shockingly strong jobs report. In July, the...
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 528,000 jobs in July, well above the consensus expectation of 250,000, and the biggest gain since February. The labor force participation rate ticked down again, falling 0.1 percentage point in July, to 62.1 percent. The July jobs report shows total non...
The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, more than double market expectations. Equity market futures dropped, and Treasury rates spiked following the hot NFP data. Next week's CPI will be ever more important in the wake of July's employment data as the Fed may be forced into m...
This morning's employment report for July showed a 528K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was well above the Investing.com forecast of 250K jobs added. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the employment-population was range-bound between 58.2% and 60.6%. The employment-populatio...
Given the weight of the evidence from the past decade of market performance, it makes sense that stocks should perform better if the Fed pivots from monetary tightening. The stock market continues to perform when the Fed is lifting interest rates. What is clear is that the time to...
If the economic data comes in too hot, investors will worry about more aggressive tightening by the Fed. If the economic data comes in too cold, investors will worry about recession. The strength in stocks combined with the inverted yield curve is sending a mixed message. Toda...
Economic data just released last week showed the economy contracting by -0.9% in the 2nd quarter after declining -1.6% in the first quarter of 2022. There are plenty of challenging forces surrounding us, including an overhanging recession, that could push you into a depression. ...
The great majority of reporting companies have met or surpassed their expected financial results. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 has gained about 500 points or 14% from its low in June. The NASDAQ has recovered by about 17%. Increases in interest rates by the major centra...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...