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Real GDP declined 32.9% in the second quarter. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis The second quarter GDP report showed a huge decline in the April-May-June period, a clear recession. Right now, however, we may be technically out of recession. Unfortunately, being out of recession is ...
In Part II of this three-part series, we continue to explore three main factors that will continue to push Treasury rates lower, possibly near 0% on the long-end of the curve. In Part I , we covered the inflation vs. deflation debate and argued that deflation was the more immediate risk...
Repos are gone. Dollar liquidity swaps dropped further. SPVs fell to lowest since June 17. MBS dropped by $37 billion. Treasuries rose. Week seven since peak balance sheet: Total assets on the Fed's balance sheet for the week ended July 29, released this afternoon, fell by $16 billion fr...
If that wasn't the most anticlimactic worst economic quarter in history. The numbers were just as bad as people were expecting - which is the point. It's not like this economic collapse snuck up on anyone, nor did its scale and depth. We've all known from the very beginning what the deal was g...
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not announce a major shift in monetary policy following the July meeting. The Fed statement included only minimal changes to reflect the economic recovery seen in May and June, while during the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powel...
By Robert Hughes For a second week, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly, suggesting labor-market conditions remain in flux as some workers are getting called back to work while others are still being cut. There are lingering concerns regarding the accuracy of the claims ...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on July 30, 2020, by James Hamilton here . The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced Thursday that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP was 9.5% lower in the second quarter than it had been in the first quarter, which they reported as a ...
The U.S. economy contracted by a record 32.9% in Q2 (annualized), as the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage. Anthony Okolie speaks with James Marple, Senior Economist, TD Bank, about the historic plunge in GDP and what it signals for the economy. Original ...
At the start of the global health crisis, the private sector flocked into dollars as a safe haven, but as central banks and governments took action, markets found a healthier appetite for risk and that demand has declined, Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global For...
NEW YORK (July 3) - Gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter of 2020, or "2020Q2 GDP", declined a record 32.9%, slightly above the consensus estimate of a 34.1% decline. It came in 90 bps above the lower end of our estimated range of decline of 25% to 35%, as set forth in our June ...