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The long-run risk premia estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in July, edging up to 4.8%. This annualized outlook for GMI reflects the long-term forecast over the "risk-free" rate, based on a risk-centered model outlined by Professor Bill Sharpe (details below). Tod...
After weakening since the end of March, the US dollar index had the most negative month in a decade in July as US Treasury rates slumped, government spending leapt, and plunge protection teams pumped equity futures nightly. The consensus is now betting on more of the same. As shown on the le...
"The world is entering a transformative era." So writes Walter Russell Mead in the Wall Street Journal . He concludes his opinion piece by adding, History is accelerating, and the leaders, values, institutions and ideas that guide society are going to be tested severely by the struggles ...
Global trade has dropped sharply as a result of the lockdowns. From the European Central Bank (emphasis added): National accounts data for key economies point to a sharp fall in both exports and imports in the first quarter of 2020. ... In the June 2020 Eurosystem staff macroecon...
If all the economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion. − George Bernard Shaw Economics is a dry and dull club that's mostly occupied by wise men with unshaved beards and an unkempt hairdo. However, no matter how boring it all sounds, all investors must make...
By Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki and Jillian Geliebter Several equity factors diverged significantly from their typical performance patterns during the COVID-19 crisis. By understanding how factor returns behaved in this market correction relative to their historic norms, investors can not onl...
Monthly GDP rose 5.0% in June following a 4.4% increase in May. The back-to-back increases followed back-to-back declines over March and April that lowered GDP a cumulative 15.3%; the increases over May and June reversed about one-half of that decline. About two-thirds of the June increase was...
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If something is true, no amount of wishful thinking will change it . Richard Dawkins US Gross Domestic Product ((GDP)) decreased 7% in the second quarter of 2020, the largest quarterly decrease since World War II. Reports sensationalize this 7% loss by annualizing it to 32%. Also, in the qu...
As we await Friday's jobs report, let's take a look at where we are so far in the employment recovery, starting with macro-level employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Click for a larger image. In April, the economy lost 20,787,000 jobs. 47% were in two areas: retail (which...