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Just a Quickie I'll have a lot more to say about the July jobs report next week, but I just wanted to get you some top-line conclusions for weekend reading. In the first place, the household survey continues to be a mess, with very low response rates, and coding error by the Census Bureau ...
There have been a few interesting discussions lately on Seeking Alpha comparing the current market hubris to the 1999 tech bubble which burst in 2000. They include Nasdaq - Party Like It's 1999 , Tesla: Excuse Me, 1999 Is Calling and Beating The Market With REITs: Party Like It's 1999 . ...
Like Demobilizing From A World War BEA’s quarterly GDP data only goes back to 1947, which is unfortunate, because 1946 is where we would find the closest analogy to what is happening right now. During World War II, the entire US economy had become highly dependent on a single cus...
Employment is expected to rebound again in this week's update on payrolls in July, but it's still premature to equate positive monthly hiring comparisons with an all-clear signal for the labor market and economic outlook. A more reliable measure of what's brewing can be found in two weekly rep...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on August 3, 2020, by Menzie Chinn here . Here are five key indicators referenced by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee in Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding...
White-collar office buildings in large cities make up an ecosystem, and there’s an economic ecosystem that happens around them as a result, David Bahnsen, founder and managing partner of The Bahnsen Group, told Ash Bennington during today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. Ba...
There's a lot of debate in the US Congress over whether the US economy needs more stimulus - and if it does, how big the stimulus has to be. But a closer look at personal income numbers doesn't leave much room for discussion. More stimulus is very much needed - and soon. The COVID-19 crisis ...
Some readers who are much newer to this game, think that just because a call is wrong for a day, the call is wrong. It isn't how it works. It works quite the opposite; it takes time for trends to change and to take shape. Having worked on an equity trading desk for many years at a buy-side sho...
Stock prices just 3% lower than peak. DR. BILL CONERLY BASED ON DATA FROM STANDARD & POOR'S If the stock market is our mother, she says, "There, there. Everything's goings to be all right." The market is not actually our mother, but that's what it seems to be saying...
The first two parts of this series outlined important considerations for the Treasury market. Part I discussed several common arguments in favor of inflation. Through a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic trends, we settled on the economic output gap as the best long-term forecasti...