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The first two parts of this series outlined important considerations for the Treasury market. Part I discussed several common arguments in favor of inflation. Through a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic trends, we settled on the economic output gap as the best long-term forecasti...
In the early weeks and months of the novel coronavirus pandemic and the related shutdown of the economy, the pace of economic and health developments was frenetic. My memo writing followed suit: one a week for the first six weeks, and a total of ten over 18 weeks. After starting off at that ra...
There is something wrong with the monthly Payroll Employment Report. Economists were very surprised by the massive jump in jobs reported in May. They quickly changed their viewpoints about the economy as did important policymakers. The reasons are simple: Employment is the most importa...
Today’s ADP payroll numbers were much weaker than the projected 1.5 million jobs added; in the last month, the private sector added just 167,000 jobs. This speaks to the scale of the job loss, how difficult it is to forecast in this environment, and the slowing of the U.S. econom...
Forget about your competitors, just focus on your customers. - Jack Ma Consumption is the key driver of any economy's growth and success. High-consumption economies witness a whole lot of innovation, creativity, job creation, GDP growth, prosperity, business longevity, and much more. There...
Durable Goods Orders Orders rose 7.3% in June, which was fueled by an 86% increase in orders for autos and auto parts. This is simply meeting pent up demand, following the shutdowns in March and April. Aircraft orders plunged, as Boeing (BA) suffered nearly 200 cancellations and landed onl...
Original post By Rob Bennett Robert Shiller issued a paper in July 1996 saying that investors who stuck with their high stock allocations would live to regret it within 10 years. There was a sharp price drop in late 2008 and early 2009. But in not too long a time the CAPE level retur...
By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist Weekly Market Compass: A federal unemployment benefit ends, Congress continues to debate about stimulus, and many fear schools could hasten a 'second wave' of virus cases. Last Friday, my oldest child graduated from high school. La...
Countries that focused on adopting a sustainable long-term strategy as their new normal are containing the virus better than the U.S., and as a result, will fare better economically, too, Ed Harrison said during today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. Harrison argued that we may no...
The long-run risk premia estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in July, edging up to 4.8%. This annualized outlook for GMI reflects the long-term forecast over the "risk-free" rate, based on a risk-centered model outlined by Professor Bill Sharpe (details below). Tod...